Kentucky Wildcats vs Oklahoma Sooners prediction: Kentucky's third-down habit faces Oklahoma's suffocating defense in Norman

The third-down squeeze

Kentucky arrives at 5-1 and ranked 15th, on its first trip to Norman since 1980. Its offense has a strange split. The Wildcats' success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, sits at 49.5%, 20th in FBS. Yet when drives reach third down, they convert just 26.9% of the time, 135th of 138.

That is the worst possible flaw to carry into this building. Oklahoma allows opponents to convert 22.7% of third downs, 3rd nationally. Its success rate allowed of 31.5% ranks 2nd, and its EPA allowed (expected points added per play) is -0.159, 3rd in the country. Kentucky has gotten away with it by staying ahead of the chains. Against a defense this stingy on early downs, more drives will reach third-and-long, and that is where the Sooners have strangled everyone.

Oklahoma's offense runs on one leg

The Sooners' defense keeps them in games; their offense keeps them from running away with any. Oklahoma's rushing EPA is -0.241, dead last among 138 teams. Its line yards per carry, a measure of how much push the front generates, is 2.43, 134th. Lloyd Avant leads the backfield at 4.5 yards per carry, and Jonathan Hatton Jr. has managed 2.1 over the last three games.

So everything runs through John Mateer. He has completed 72.9% of his passes over the last three games, but he has also thrown 3 interceptions in that span. That matters against a Kentucky defense averaging 2.0 takeaways per game, 9th in FBS. Oklahoma gives the ball away 2.0 times a game, 131st.

The opening is there through the air. Kentucky allows 246.3 passing yards per game, 117th, and its success rate allowed of 44.4% ranks 109th. Isaiah Sategna has 246 receiving yards over his last three games and is the likeliest beneficiary.

Baxter and the Kentucky ground game

Kentucky's offense is methodical rather than explosive: its explosiveness, the average value of its successful plays, ranks 106th. It wins by grinding. CJ Baxter Jr. has 320 rushing yards on 48 carries over the last three games, including 123 against LSU.

The Oklahoma front is a tougher test than most. It allows 2.53 line yards per carry, 23rd, and averages 3.0 sacks per game, 13th. Kentucky allows 2.0 sacks per game, 84th, so Kenny Minchey will feel heat. He has protected the ball all season, with 1 interception against 11 touchdown passes.

The receiving room may be thinner. Nic Anderson left the LSU game in the second half with a shoulder injury and did not return, and his status is unconfirmed. Kenny Darby, with 401 receiving yards, becomes the focal point if Anderson sits.

Field position and the kicking game

Oklahoma has a hidden-yards problem of its own making. Opponents start drives at their own 32.5 on average, 133rd, a sign of a punchless offense that keeps giving the ball back. The Sooners claw some of it back on returns: they average 17.2 yards per punt return, 15th.

That is a live edge against Kentucky's punting unit, which averages 40.6 gross yards, 116th. Neither kicker inspires confidence; both teams make 66.7% of their field goals. In a game this likely to be tight, a missed kick could swing the outcome.

The number and the trend

Oklahoma is a 6-point favourite after opening at -6.5, a modest move toward Kentucky. The Wildcats are 5-1 against the spread and have covered in each of their last four, three of them as underdogs. Oklahoma is 2-3 ATS.

Both teams come in off emotional finishes. Kentucky beat LSU 35-34 in overtime, its second straight 35-34 win, and the school will pay LSU $500,000 for the field storming. Oklahoma beat No. 1 Texas 27-24 on Tate Sandell's 47-yard field goal as time expired. The Sooners' offense has averaged 18.0 points over its last three, and that ceiling is what makes the underdog interesting.