Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs UL Monroe prediction: Louisiana Tech's stalled ground game gets its softest target yet

A weak run game finds relief

The Bulldogs have one flaw that ULM is unusually poorly built to punish.

Tech's offensive line rarely moves anyone. It ranks 122nd in line yards per carry (the rushing yardage credited to blockers rather than the back), and its rushing EPA (expected points added per play) sits 106th. ULM's defense is the friendliest possible fix. The Warhawks rank 131st in line yards allowed and 136th in rushing EPA allowed, and only one FBS team gives up more on the ground.

The backs are ready. Andrew Burnette has averaged 5.2 yards a carry over his last three games, including 85 yards against Louisiana. Dylone Brooks is the home-run threat at 9.2 yards per carry, and he went for 119 rushing yards against Army. If Tech can stay on schedule, ULM's 52.0% third-down conversion rate allowed, 136th, suggests drives won't stall.

Havoc against a shaky pocket

Tech's defense gives up plenty, 116th in points allowed, but it wrecks plays. Its havoc rate (the share of snaps ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup) is 21.3%, ninth nationally. The Bulldogs rank sixth in both tackles for loss and takeaways per game.

ULM's line hasn't held up. The Warhawks allow havoc on 17.4% of plays, 120th, and rank 98th in sacks allowed. Alonzo Jackson Jr. has 5.0 sacks already and should test the edges.

The danger for Tech is the big play. Its defense ranks 123rd in explosiveness allowed, and Aidan Armenta has thrown for 8.6 yards per attempt over his last three games. He found Marcellus Jackson and JP Coulter deep at South Alabama, where ULM still scored 35. The Warhawks' own explosiveness ranks only 102nd, though, so they'll need Tech to blow coverages rather than beat them outright.

Baker back in rhythm

Blake Baker is Tech's starter again. He missed the Baylor game with a hand injury, then returned against Louisiana and completed 32 of 42 passes for 319 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for a score as Tech piled up 19 fourth-quarter points to win 32-31.

His targets are spread out. Jalen Mickens leads the team with 434 receiving yards, and Talyn Shettron posted 102 yards against Louisiana. ULM ranks 133rd in passing EPA allowed, so the vertical game Tech already favors fits the matchup.

Kicking and field position

Tech's weakness is the leg. The Bulldogs have made 2/6 field goals, dead last nationally, and they've hit only 90.0% of extra points. In a rivalry game, that could turn a comfortable night into a close one.

Field position should help balance it. Tech's average start is the 32.8-yard line, 10th nationally. ULM's net punting ranks 128th, and its punt coverage has allowed 24.8 yards per return, 131st. Short fields could matter as much as Tech's ground game.

Context behind the records

The Bulldogs covered at LSU and Baylor and are 4-1 against the spread this season. ULM is 1-4 against the spread and lost at home to FCS SE Louisiana as a 10-point favorite.

The Warhawks do have one edge: they have 14 days of rest, while Tech plays on a normal week after a draining comeback. Fresh legs don't fix a defense allowing 44.6 points per game, the worst figure in FBS.