Ohio Bobcats vs Sacramento State prediction: Ohio's ground game heads west against a Sacramento State front that bends

Ohio owns the line of scrimmage

This game will likely turn on whether Sacramento State can slow Ohio's run game, and the numbers say that will be hard. Ohio runs for 197.3 yards per game, 36th nationally. Its blockers average 3.5 line yards per carry, a measure of how much push the line creates before the back is on his own, and that ranks 15th of 138.

Sac State's front gives up 3.0 line yards per carry, 93rd, and 161.3 rushing yards per game, 96th. Its stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is 16.5%, which ranks 102nd. Its havoc rate (plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or pass breakup) of 11.3% sits 130th, so Ohio should rarely face second-and-long.

Ohio splits the carries. Duncan Brune has 243 yards over his last three games, and Victor Rosa averaged 7.8 yards per carry against Central Michigan. This is a grind-it-out offense: Ohio's explosiveness ranks 124th. It makes up for that by staying on schedule, converting 51.8% of third downs, 11th in the country.

Poulos is back under center

Nick Poulos missed three games with a concussion, then returned for the Central Michigan game and threw three first-half touchdown passes. The last was a 44-yarder to Dom Dorwart that made it 31-0 at halftime. No new injury designation has surfaced since.

The contrast with his absence is stark. In the 13-10 win at Kent State, backup Matt Vezza went 4 of 9 for 38 yards. Ohio's season passing average of 157.8 yards per game ranks 128th. Vezza and Levi Davis both offer running ability if Ohio needs them again.

Sac State lacks a big play

Sacramento State is in its first season as an FBS and MAC program, and the jump shows. Its explosiveness ranks 138th, dead last. It scores 2.41 points per scoring opportunity, 130th, and has averaged 8.7 points over its last three games.

Jackson Sharman has played through bumps and bruises, completing 55.6% of his passes at 5.9 yards per attempt. Carson Conklin was last reported out with a wrist injury, with no word on a return. The Hornets also beat themselves: they commit 2.0 turnovers per game (131st) and 68.3 penalty yards per game (109th). After the Bowling Green loss, Alonzo Carter named the problem in one word: "Discipline."

Where the Hornets can find yards

Sac State's best opening is Ohio's pass defense. The Bobcats allow 0.329 passing EPA per play (expected points added on each dropback), 117th nationally, and let opponents convert 45.1% of third downs, 118th. Matthew Coleman is the target: he has 454 receiving yards and closed the Bowling Green game with a 55-yard catch.

Ohio's pass rush is heating up, though. Michael Molnar has 3.0 sacks in his last three games, and Ike Ackerman has 4.5 in four games. Sac State's havoc allowed of 17.2% ranks 114th, so Sharman will see pressure.

Treat Ohio's recent defensive form with some care. The Bobcats allowed 10.3 points per game over their last three, but those games came against Stonehill, Kent State (SP+ 133rd) and Central Michigan (127th). Ohio's FBS opponents average an SP+ of -7.2, a softer slate than Sac State's -5.3.