Louisville Cardinals vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets prediction: Louisville's ground game can bury a Georgia Tech defense in free fall
The Cardinals run as well as almost anyone, Georgia Tech stops the run worse than almost anyone, and the Yellow Jackets may not know their quarterback until Thursday night.
| Spread | Louisville -14.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 62.5 |
- Louisville should lean on Isaac Brown and Lincoln Kienholz against a run defense ranked 134th, while Georgia Tech chases points with an unsettled quarterback.
- Louisville's backs against Georgia Tech's front, which allows 219.2 rushing yards a game.
- Our fair line is Louisville by 15.33, slightly past the market's 14.5, with a total of 61.93 against 61.5.
The Run Game Mismatch
Louisville runs for 225.1 yards a game, 9th in the FBS, and its rushing EPA (expected points added per play) ranks 6th. Georgia Tech allows 219.2 rushing yards a game, which ranks 134th of 138. The Yellow Jackets are also 127th in line yards allowed, a measure of how much push opposing blockers get, and 121st in rushing EPA allowed.
Isaac Brown is listed as probable after averaging 11.0 yards per carry over his last three games. He ran for 235 yards against Florida State. Against Stanford, he needed only nine carries for 139. Keyjuan Brown adds 8.1 yards per carry behind him, and Kienholz has 11 rushing touchdowns of his own. Our projection has Louisville at 261 rushing yards.
The one crack: Louisville wins with big plays rather than push. Its line yards rank 106th while its explosiveness ranks 3rd, and three offensive linemen (Bryten Close, James Glover-Tyson and Anwar O'Neal) are out. Georgia Tech isn't built to exploit that. Its front ranks 113th in stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line.
Georgia Tech's Quarterback Question
Brent Key said the staff would settle the job Thursday evening. Grady Adamson has replaced Alberto Mendoza in each of the last two games, and Mendoza is in real danger of losing the starting role. The depth chart still lists Mendoza, but it isn't an official game-week chart.
The Pittsburgh loss explains the debate. Mendoza threw for 81 yards on 3.2 yards per attempt and fumbled four times, and Adamson led the only touchdown drive in an 11-34 defeat. Mendoza has also run for -34 yards on the season, so he offers no escape hatch.
Whoever starts plays behind a line that ranks 127th in havoc allowed, the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, fumble, interception or pass breakup. Louisville's Tyler Thompson has 4.0 sacks over his last three games, and Louisville ranks 14th in takeaways per game. Georgia Tech already converts just 30.6% of third downs, 135th nationally.
Where Georgia Tech Can Strike Back
Louisville's pass defense is the soft spot. It allows 269.0 passing yards a game, 130th, and ranks 99th in passing EPA allowed. Jordan Allen, with 46 catches on the season, caught 10 for 120 at Virginia Tech, and Dalen Penson has two touchdowns in his last three games.
The kicking game is the other opening. Louisville has made 8/12 field goals, and its extra-point rate ranks 124th. Punter Jacob Baker is out for a unit already 122nd in gross average, which hands better field position to a Georgia Tech kick return game ranked 13th. Louisville's 72.0 penalty yards a game rank 122nd as well. Those are the hidden yards that keep a two-touchdown spread honest.
The Number and the Script
Louisville opened at 14 and has moved to 14.5, with the total at 61.5. Our model makes it Louisville by 15.33, roughly 38.6 to 23.3, and gives Georgia Tech a 17.0% chance to win.
Form backs the favorite. Louisville has averaged 43.3 points over its last three games, while Georgia Tech has allowed 39.0 over a three-game losing streak. The Yellow Jackets are 1-7 against the spread this season; Louisville is 5-3.
The game script points to one correlated angle that fits this matchup. In tested games, when the favorite covered, its rushing went over its line 33.9% of the time, against 25.3% if the two were unrelated. If Louisville covers here, it almost certainly does it on the ground.
Where the money is on Louisville Cardinals vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
On the Kalshi moneyline: Louisville Cardinals: 36% of bets, 68% of the money; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 64% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Louisville Cardinals -14.5: 44% of bets, 3% of the money; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +14.5: 56% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 62.5: 62% of bets, 34% of the money; Under 62.5: 38% of bets, 66% of the money.
Louisville Cardinals vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets stats (this season)
| Stat | Louisville Cardinals | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3 | 2-6 |
| Points per game | 40.4 (6th of 138) | 24.8 (89th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 27.0 (93rd of 138) | 30.8 (116th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 7.81 (1st of 138) | 5.65 (83rd of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.54 (78th of 138) | 5.87 (103rd of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 267.0 (26th of 138) | 241.3 (55th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 225.1 (9th of 138) | 119.9 (115th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 46.7% (25th of 138) | 30.6% (134th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88 (25th of 138) | 1.38 (79th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.75 (14th of 138) | 0.75 (125th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.330 (4th of 138) | 0.101 (84th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.055 (57th of 138) | 0.185 (120th of 138) |
Key players
- Isaac Brown (Louisville): Probable after averaging 11.0 yards per carry over his last three games, including 235 yards against Florida State.
- Lincoln Kienholz (Louisville): Averages 10.1 yards per attempt and has 11 rushing touchdowns this season.
- Tyler Thompson (Louisville): Has 4.0 sacks in his last three games against a Georgia Tech line that struggles with pressure.
- Kaleb Beasley (Louisville): Leads the secondary with 5 interceptions this season.
- Alberto Mendoza (Georgia Tech): Threw for just 81 yards at Pittsburgh and may lose the job to Grady Adamson.
- Jordan Allen (Georgia Tech): Leads the team with 46 catches and had 10 for 120 at Virginia Tech.
- Justice Haynes (Georgia Tech): Has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over his last three games.
- Noah Carter (Georgia Tech): Has 3.0 sacks in just four games played.
Numbers that matter
| Georgia Tech rush yards allowed | 134th | The Yellow Jackets give up 219.2 rushing yards a game to a Louisville offense that runs for 225.1. |
|---|---|---|
| Louisville explosiveness | 3rd | Louisville wins with big plays rather than line push, where it ranks 106th. |
| Georgia Tech havoc allowed | 127th | An unsettled quarterback spot sits behind a line that gives up negative plays often. |
| Louisville pass yards allowed | 130th | Georgia Tech's best path to keeping it close runs through the air. |
| Our fair spread | 15.33 | Our number sits slightly past the market's Louisville -14.5. |
Louisville Cardinals vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: quick answers
Who is favored in Louisville Cardinals vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets?
Louisville is favored by 14.5 points (Louisville -14.5).
What is the over/under for Louisville Cardinals vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets?
The total is 62.5 points.
When is Louisville Cardinals vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Where is Louisville Cardinals vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets played?
Bobby Dodd Stadium.
Where is the money on Louisville Cardinals vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Louisville Cardinals: 36% of bets, 68% of the money; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 64% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Louisville Cardinals -14.5: 44% of bets, 3% of the money; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +14.5: 56% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 62.5: 62% of bets, 34% of the money; Under 62.5: 38% of bets, 66% of the money.