Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies prediction: Liberty's defense waits while New Mexico State hunts for a quarterback

Nobody knows who throws

Tony Sanchez spent his Monday press conference declining to name a starter. First-team reps have gone to Trey and Kalani, Adam Damante has gotten some too, and Sanchez offered this: "I wouldn't be surprised to see other guys sitting back there starting quarterback."

That uncertainty sits on top of a passing game that ranks 131st of 138 in passing EPA, or expected points added per dropback. Damante threw for 29 yards in last week's 24-0 home loss to Jacksonville State. Trey Hedden, the candidate with the longest track record, completed 45.2% of his passes across his last three appearances, with five interceptions. The supporting cast is thinner as well: tight end Josiah Thomas has a broken collarbone, and wideout TK King has a knee injury that will keep him out for an extended stretch.

The Aggies' recent form shows the damage. Over their last three games they scored 11.0 points per game, with a success rate (share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) of 36.5%.

They'll get no relief from Liberty. The Flames allow 13.5 points per game, 7th in FBS, and they rank 10th in passing EPA allowed. Over their last three games they gave up 6.3 points per game, and they held FIU to 34 rushing yards last week.

Liberty grinds, never flashes

Liberty runs for 212.2 yards per game, 17th nationally, and the work starts up front. Its 3.4 line yards per carry, which credits the offensive line for the first few yards of each run, ranks 12th. The Flames' 49.3% success rate ranks 15th.

What this offense doesn't do is rip off big plays; its explosiveness ranks 120th. It wins by stacking efficient snaps and protecting the ball, with 0.75 turnovers per game, 15th in FBS. Kam Davis averages 6.9 yards per carry and has scored four of his seven touchdowns in the last three games. Deshawn Purdie, who has made six starts, isn't asked to throw often, but he averages 9.6 yards per attempt with one interception all season.

The Aggies' best counter is their front. Their stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, ranks 30th, and Gabe Peterson has 5.5 sacks. The problem comes after the first wave: New Mexico State ranks 89th in rushing EPA allowed, so runs that get past the line tend to keep going.

Hidden yards tilt one way

Field position is a quiet edge for Liberty. The Flames' average starting field position ranks 3rd in the country. New Mexico State's opponents, meanwhile, start drives with better field position than almost anyone's, a ranking of 132nd.

The kicking game widens the gap. The Aggies have made 7 of 12 field goals and rank 135th in extra-point percentage, and Kyah Francone went 0-for-2 against Jacksonville State. Liberty is 11-for-11.

The one leak in the Flames' game is discipline. They give away 82.5 penalty yards per game, which ranks 136th, and that's the likeliest way an underdog steals extra possessions.

Can the Aggies hang around?

History gives New Mexico State a reason to believe. The Aggies held late fourth-quarter leads in each of the last two meetings and lost both, 30-24 at home in 2024 and 30-27 at Liberty last season. Liberty still leads the series 7-2 and has won four straight.

Liberty's dominance this fall comes with a schedule caveat. Its last four opponents all ranked 101st or worse in SP+, and the Flames covered in every one of them. New Mexico State has played the tougher slate by average opponent SP+, though the Aggies' ratings suggest they belong in that weaker company: they rank 119th in SP+. The Aggies also get 10 days of rest to Liberty's seven.

The line opened at 17 and hasn't moved, with the total at 46.5 across 27 books. A cover for Liberty likely runs through Davis and the run game; in tested games, favorites that cover see their rushing go over its line far more often than chance would suggest.