Michigan State Spartans vs Michigan Wolverines prediction: Short-handed Michigan State runs into Michigan's fifth-ranked defense
The Spartans could be without a starting quarterback, their top running back and two cornerbacks, and the Wolverines allow less per snap than almost anyone.
| Spread | Michigan -14 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 39.5 |
- Michigan's defense should smother a depleted Spartan offense. The real question is whether Michigan's sputtering attack finishes enough drives to clear 13.5.
- Watch Michigan's run game behind Tommy Carr against a Spartan front now missing DT Ben Roberts and LB Jordan Hall.
- Our model makes it Michigan -13.72 with a 39.62 total, essentially the market's number, and gives Michigan an 81% chance to win.
A roster running out of bodies
Michigan State arrives in Ann Arbor on a six-game losing streak, with its quarterback questionable and an injury list long enough to fill a two-deep. Michigan has won four straight in the Paul Bunyan series and is playing for bowl eligibility. Kyle Whittingham called the rivalry "intense." The fight Saturday may be one-sided for a simple reason: the Wolverines' defense is elite, and the Spartans may not have enough healthy players to test it.
Michigan State ruled out 13 players this week. The list includes running back Jaziun Patterson, pass catcher Jayden Savoury, cornerbacks Tre Bell and Charles Brantley, safety Brayden Thomas and lineman Tristan Comer. Alessio Milivojevic, who missed the UCLA game, is questionable again, and backup Cam Fancher is out. Michigan State hasn't named a starter. Freshman Kayd Coffman started against UCLA, went 4-for-10 with an interception and gave way to Leo Hannan in an 18-point loss.
Nowhere to go against Michigan
This offense struggled even with its regulars. Michigan State ranks 135th of 138 in yards per play and 137th in explosiveness, which measures how much value an offense gets from its successful plays. Protection is the bigger worry. The Spartans allow 3.0 sacks per game, 125th nationally.
Michigan ranks fifth in EPA allowed per play. EPA, or expected points added, measures how much each snap moves a team toward scoring. The Wolverines are eighth in success rate allowed, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule. They tighten further near the goal line: opponents score 2.26 points per scoring opportunity, fourth in the country. Edge rushers John Henry Daley and Dominic Nichols both missed Rutgers. Whittingham said both were expected to play Saturday, and Daley's 6.5 tackles for loss would give the pass rush an extra threat against that line.
Carr's job is finishing drives
Whittingham settled the quarterback question by naming Tommy Carr the starter for Saturday and the "foreseeable future." The change follows a rough stretch for Bryce Underwood, who threw four interceptions and no touchdowns over his last three games. Carr delivered at Rutgers, scoring the go-ahead touchdown on a 9-yard run late in the fourth quarter.
Michigan's offense struggles to move the ball and stalls when it gets close. The Wolverines rank 125th in points per scoring opportunity and 115th in turnovers per game. The kicking game has not helped either. Michigan is 6 of 10 on field goals, and Whittingham has reopened the kicking competition.
The cleanest path is on the ground. Michigan State ranks 85th in rushing yards allowed, and opponents have stayed on schedule on 49.7% of snaps over the Spartans' last three games. Ben Roberts, the defensive tackle who had two sacks against Northwestern, was carted off against UCLA and is out. Our projection has Michigan rushing for 172 yards. The Wolverines are also missing a tackle of their own: Andrew Sprague is not expected back this season.
Where the Spartans steal yards
Michigan State's best weapon may be its punter. The Spartans rank sixth in net punting and 19th in average starting field position. That matters against a Michigan unit that allows 31.3 yards per kick return, 135th of 137.
The Spartans also come in with 14 days of rest, compared with Michigan's 7. Their record is partly a product of their schedule. Michigan State's FBS opponents average an SP+ rating of 8.9, against 3.5 for Michigan's. That is why the Spartans' losses to Northwestern and Illinois came by a field goal or less.
The line and our number
Michigan opened at -14 and sits at -13.5, a small move toward Michigan State, with the total at 39.5. Our model lands almost exactly on the market at Michigan -13.72 with a 39.62 total. Covering big numbers has not been Michigan's habit. The Wolverines are 3-5 against the spread and failed to cover as a 16-point favorite at Rutgers. In the first half, our number is Michigan -6.76 with a 20.92 total. If Michigan covers, expect the run game to be the reason: favorites that cover tend to go over their rushing lines.
Where the money is on Michigan State Spartans vs Michigan Wolverines
On the Kalshi moneyline: Michigan State Spartans: 58% of bets, 33% of the money; Michigan Wolverines: 42% of bets, 67% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Michigan Wolverines -14.5: 21% of bets, 90% of the money; Michigan State Spartans +14.5: 79% of bets, 10% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 39.5: 52% of bets, 97% of the money; Under 39.5: 48% of bets, 3% of the money.
Michigan State Spartans vs Michigan Wolverines stats (this season)
| Stat | Michigan State Spartans | Michigan Wolverines |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-6 | 5-3 |
| Points per game | 19.9 (125th of 138) | 21.3 (112th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8 (82nd of 138) | 16.4 (16th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 4.63 (135th of 138) | 5.14 (116th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.57 (81st of 138) | 4.30 (6th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 181.3 (117th of 138) | 178.4 (120th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 110.1 (122nd of 138) | 138.0 (98th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 37.9% (87th of 138) | 43.9% (38th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.38 (79th of 138) | 1.63 (115th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63 (133rd of 138) | 1.13 (75th of 138) |
| EPA per play | -0.023 (129th of 138) | 0.084 (94th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.165 (115th of 138) | -0.086 (5th of 138) |
Key players
- Alessio Milivojevic (Michigan State): Questionable after missing UCLA, he has completed 65.4% of his passes with 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
- Chrishon Mccray (Michigan State): Leads the Spartans' listed receivers with 289 yards on 29 catches, including 64 yards and a score against Northwestern.
- Camryn Edwards (Michigan State): With Patterson out, he carries 4.8 yards per carry on 64 attempts this season.
- Eli Coenen (Michigan State): Has 3.5 sacks on the season but just 0.5 over his last three games.
- Tommy Carr (Michigan): Named the starter for the foreseeable future after his 9-yard go-ahead touchdown run beat Rutgers.
- JJ Buchanan (Michigan): The top target, with 602 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns on 38 catches.
- John Henry Daley (Michigan): Has 6.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks in six games, and Whittingham said he was expected to play after missing Rutgers.
- Chris Bracy (Michigan): Has 27 tackles, 2.0 sacks and an interception over his last three games.
Numbers that matter
| Michigan EPA per play allowed | 5th | Michigan gives up less per snap than almost any defense in the country. |
|---|---|---|
| MSU sacks allowed per game | 125th | A shaky line now faces a pass rush that may get Daley and Nichols back. |
| Michigan kick return average allowed | 135th | This is the clearest special-teams opening for a Spartan team built on field position. |
| Michigan points per scoring opportunity | 125th | Michigan's red-zone struggles are why a 13.5-point spread is no gimme despite the mismatch. |
| Our fair home spread | -13.72 | Our number sits almost exactly on the market's 13.5. |
Michigan State Spartans vs Michigan Wolverines: quick answers
Who is favored in Michigan State Spartans vs Michigan Wolverines?
Michigan is favored by 14 points (Michigan -14).
What is the over/under for Michigan State Spartans vs Michigan Wolverines?
The total is 39.5 points.
When is Michigan State Spartans vs Michigan Wolverines?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Where is Michigan State Spartans vs Michigan Wolverines played?
Michigan Stadium.
Where is the money on Michigan State Spartans vs Michigan Wolverines?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Michigan State Spartans: 58% of bets, 33% of the money; Michigan Wolverines: 42% of bets, 67% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Michigan Wolverines -14.5: 21% of bets, 90% of the money; Michigan State Spartans +14.5: 79% of bets, 10% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 39.5: 52% of bets, 97% of the money; Under 39.5: 48% of bets, 3% of the money.