Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils prediction: Colorado's havoc defense gets its shot at ASU freshman Jake Fette
Arizona State's sack-prone line protects a true freshman in his second start, and Colorado's front is built to punish exactly that.
| Spread | Arizona State -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 48.5 |
- A tight, physical game. Arizona State's run game and kicking edge should beat Colorado's pressure and its turnover habit.
- Colorado's front, ninth nationally in havoc, against an Arizona State line that ranks 128th in sacks allowed protecting a true freshman.
- Our number makes Arizona State a 4.1-point favorite, a touch above the market's 3.2, and gives the Sun Devils a 60% win chance.
A freshman in the crossfire
Jake Fette's first career start was a comeback. He pulled Arizona State out of a two-touchdown halftime hole at BYU before falling 27-20, and his first touchdown pass was a 20-yard back-shoulder fade to Omarion Miller. Kenny Dillingham said Monday that Fette remains the starter, with Mikey Keene listed as probable as he works back from an injury suffered against Kansas State.
Fette's second start comes against the one thing Colorado does at an elite level. The Buffaloes rank ninth of 138 in havoc rate, the share of plays that end in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup. They are sixth in stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line. Gideon Lampron has 3 sacks over the last three games, and Lamont Lester Jr. has 5 sacks in only four appearances.
That is a bad draw for this Arizona State line. The Sun Devils allow 3.12 sacks per game, 128th nationally, and rank 127th in havoc allowed. They also convert just 30.9% of third downs, 133rd in the country. A young quarterback in long-yardage situations against this front is the game's central problem for the home team.
Wilson's arm, Colorado's giveaways
Isaac Wilson has started each of the past three games for Colorado, and Julian Lewis was listed as doubtful after a medical emergency on Oct. 28. Wilson has been sharp and loose at once. Over his last three games he averaged 9.2 yards per attempt, with five touchdowns against four interceptions.
The interceptions fit a season-long pattern. Colorado commits 2.12 turnovers per game, 137th of 138, and adds 80.4 penalty yards per game, 134th. Arizona State hasn't forced many mistakes, ranking 97th in takeaways, so the Buffaloes may hold the key to their own fate here.
When Wilson keeps the ball safe, he has targets. Joseph Williams has 732 receiving yards and went for 135 at Oklahoma State. DeAndre Moore Jr. has two touchdowns over the last three games. Arizona State's pass defense sits 55th in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per play), solid but not stifling.
Cardae Mack sets the tone
Arizona State's best answer to pressure is handing the ball to Cardae Mack. He has 309 rushing yards and four touchdowns over his last three games, including 159 yards against Kansas State. Our projection puts the Sun Devils at 154 rushing yards.
Colorado's run defense is the sturdier half of its unit, 28th in rushing EPA allowed. The pass defense is the softer target, 115th in passing yards allowed. Recent form has been rough overall: Colorado has allowed 36.0 points per game across its last three.
The Buffaloes can't lean on their own ground game in return. They rank 129th in rushing EPA per play, which leaves Wilson carrying the offense into a defense that ranks 39th in third-down conversions allowed.
The kicking game tilts toward Tempe
In a game priced near a field goal, the kickers matter. Arizona State has made 11 of 12 field-goal tries. Colorado has made 5 of 9, and it ranks 132nd in points per scoring opportunity, a sign drives stall without touchdowns.
Field position has hurt the Buffaloes all year. Their average start is the 25.5-yard line, 135th nationally, and they allow 30.8 yards per kick return, 134th. Arizona State has its own return problem, allowing 22.2 yards per punt return, 133rd, so a Colorado punt-return swing is the Buffaloes' best hidden-yardage chance.
Where the number lands
Arizona State opened -3.5 and has drifted to -3.2, with the move toward Colorado. The Sun Devils have covered their last two as underdogs, including the 27-20 loss at BYU. Colorado is 2-5-1 against the spread, though it has faced the tougher slate, with FBS opponents averaging an SP+ of 11.2 against 7.9 for Arizona State.
Bowl math raises the stakes: Arizona State needs two wins in its final four, Colorado three. Our model makes it Arizona State by 4.1 with a total of 48.4, nearly matching the market's 48.5. A Sun Devils cover likely runs through Mack, which fits our finding that a favorite covering and its rushing total going over tend to happen together.
Where the money is on Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils
On the Kalshi moneyline: Colorado Buffaloes: 37% of bets, 24% of the money; Arizona State Sun Devils: 63% of bets, 76% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Arizona State Sun Devils -3.5: 68% of bets, 5% of the money; Colorado Buffaloes +3.5: 32% of bets, 95% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 48.5: 64% of bets, 5% of the money; Under 48.5: 37% of bets, 96% of the money.
Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils stats (this season)
| Stat | Colorado Buffaloes | Arizona State Sun Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-5 | 4-4 |
| Points per game | 21.0 (115th of 138) | 29.5 (57th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 29.4 (108th of 138) | 29.5 (109th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.73 (76th of 138) | 5.70 (79th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.42 (68th of 138) | 5.26 (55th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 256.4 (34th of 138) | 254.8 (38th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 140.0 (93rd of 138) | 140.3 (92nd of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 38.2% (86th of 138) | 30.9% (133rd of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 2.13 (137th of 138) | 1.38 (79th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88 (112th of 138) | 1.00 (97th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.046 (107th of 138) | 0.045 (109th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.067 (65th of 138) | 0.057 (58th of 138) |
Key players
- Isaac Wilson (Colorado): Averaged 9.2 yards per attempt over his last three games but threw four interceptions in that span.
- Joseph Williams (Colorado): Leads the team with 732 receiving yards, including 135 at Oklahoma State.
- Gideon Lampron (Colorado): Has 3 sacks and 7 tackles for loss over his last three games.
- Lamont Lester Jr. (Colorado): Has 5 sacks in just four games this season.
- Cardae Mack (Arizona State): Ran for 309 yards and four touchdowns over his last three games.
- Reed Harris (Arizona State): Has 804 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, though he caught just one pass at BYU.
- Julian Hugo (Arizona State): Has 4 sacks across his last three appearances.
- Jalen Thompson (Arizona State): Has 4 sacks on the season, with one in each of the last two games.
Numbers that matter
| Colorado havoc rate | 20.2% | Ninth nationally, a direct threat to a freshman quarterback. |
|---|---|---|
| ASU sacks allowed per game | 3.12 | Ranks 128th of 138, the weak spot Colorado's front will attack. |
| Colorado turnovers per game | 2.12 | Ranks 137th, the Buffaloes' most reliable way to lose. |
| Colorado field goals | 5/9 | Against Arizona State's 11 of 12 in a game lined near a field goal. |
| Our fair ASU spread | -4.12 | Slightly more confident in the Sun Devils than the market's -3.2. |
Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils: quick answers
Who is favored in Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils?
Arizona State is favored by 3.5 points (Arizona State -3.5).
What is the over/under for Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils?
The total is 48.5 points.
When is Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Where is Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils played?
Mountain America Stadium.
Where is the money on Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Colorado Buffaloes: 37% of bets, 24% of the money; Arizona State Sun Devils: 63% of bets, 76% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Arizona State Sun Devils -3.5: 68% of bets, 5% of the money; Colorado Buffaloes +3.5: 32% of bets, 95% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 48.5: 64% of bets, 5% of the money; Under 48.5: 37% of bets, 96% of the money.