Oklahoma Sooners vs Florida Gators prediction: Jason Witten's first play sheet tests Oklahoma's broken offense in the Swamp
Oklahoma fired its coordinator after a 118-yard, three-quarter collapse, and its offense now has to function in Gainesville before the Sooners' elite defense can matter.
| Spread | Florida -5.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 45 |
- A low-scoring, field-position game where Oklahoma's defense, ninth in EPA allowed per play, keeps it close. The Sooners' mistakes and Florida's finishing likely decide the margin.
- Oklahoma's passing game, the one part of its offense that works, against a Florida defense that ranks 119th on third down.
- Our number lands at Florida -6.75, essentially the market's -6.5. The total sits at 45.05 against 45.2. We see no gap either way.
Witten inherits a stalled offense
Oklahoma fired offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle on Monday, two days after a 42-25 home loss to South Carolina. In that game the Sooners managed 118 total yards and no offensive touchdowns through three quarters. Jason Witten, the former NFL tight end, now calls plays. He has never been a college coordinator, and his first game comes in prime time in the Swamp.
The offense he takes over ranks 123rd in EPA per play (expected points added per play) and 124th in success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule). The run game is close to the worst in the country: 136th of 138 in rushing EPA. Passing, at 75th in passing EPA, is the only part that holds up.
Venables wouldn't confirm a quarterback and said everything is on the table, but the plan appears to be to stay with John Mateer. He has 1,835 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. His recent form swings widely. He threw three interceptions against Kentucky, then completed 22 of 29 for 283 yards at Mississippi State.
Florida's pass defense gives Witten something to work with. The Gators rank 94th in passing EPA allowed and let opponents convert 43.6% on third down, 119th nationally. They do limit big plays, 18th in explosiveness allowed, so Oklahoma will have to string drives together. That is hard for an offense ranked 97th on third down. Isaiah Sategna, with 45 catches for 591 yards, is the main target. Rocky Beers is questionable, Trell Harris is out and Elijah Thomas is doubtful, so the receiving group is thin.
Tramell Jones faces a defense that gets off the field
Florida is changing quarterbacks too. Aaron Philo is still dealing with a shoulder injury, and Tramell Jones Jr. will start. Jones led the 27-24 win in Austin, the program's largest comeback against a ranked SEC opponent in a true road game. Against Georgia, his only touchdown came on a 2-yard run in an 8-point performance, Florida's lowest output of the season.
He now faces the best unit on the field. Oklahoma ranks 9th in EPA allowed per play and 13th in success rate allowed. Opponents convert only 28.2% of their third downs, 7th nationally. The Sooners also average 2.88 sacks per game, 15th. Their one weakness is explosive plays: they rank 112th in explosiveness allowed, which means Jones' arm and legs have to produce something big.
Florida's offense has faded during a hard stretch, averaging 18.0 points against South Carolina, Texas and Georgia. The Gators' schedule has been tougher (average opponent SP+ of 12.9 against Oklahoma's 8.9), but the receivers are banged up. Vernell Brown III is doubtful after what Sumrall called a setback, and Bailey Stockton is questionable.
Neither line moves anyone
This game probably won't be won on the ground. Florida ranks 123rd in line yards per carry (yards credited to the offensive line) and Oklahoma ranks 126th. Jadan Baugh has 801 yards and 13 touchdowns, but over his last three games he has averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. Florida is also without lineman Emeka Ugorji.
Oklahoma's line is depleted as well. Ryan Fodje misses a third straight game and guard Eddy Pierre-Louis is doubtful. The Sooners already allow 2.5 sacks per game (108th), and Florida's defense ranks 20th in havoc rate (plays with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup). Defensive lineman Jeramiah McCloud is suspended, and Emmanuel Oyebadejo, who has 4.5 sacks, is questionable, so Florida's rush may not be at full strength.
Finishing and hidden yards
The clearest gap between these teams shows up in scoring range. Florida scores 4.44 points per scoring opportunity (23rd), and Oklahoma manages 3.1 (116th). The Sooners have made only 13 of 19 field goals.
Oklahoma also gives the ball away 1.88 times per game, 131st of 138, and its average drive starts at its own 26.8, 118th. Florida's special teams can make that worse: the Gators average 24.0 yards per punt return, 2nd nationally. Florida's own weakness is discipline. It gives up 75.0 penalty yards per game, 128th, and that keeps opponents' drives alive.
The number and the line
The market opened at Florida -4 and has moved to -6.5 across 28 books. Our model prices Florida at -6.75 with a 66% win probability and a projected score of about 25.9 to 19.1. That is almost exactly where the line sits. Our total of 45.05 also matches the market's 45.2. Our first-half number is Florida -3.73 with a total of 23.48.
Where the money is on Oklahoma Sooners vs Florida Gators
On the Kalshi moneyline: Oklahoma Sooners: 53% of bets, 16% of the money; Florida Gators: 47% of bets, 84% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Florida Gators -5.5: 67% of bets, 23% of the money; Oklahoma Sooners +5.5: 33% of bets, 77% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 46.5: 47% of bets, 86% of the money; Under 46.5: 53% of bets, 14% of the money.
Oklahoma Sooners vs Florida Gators stats (this season)
| Stat | Oklahoma Sooners | Florida Gators |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-4 | 5-3 |
| Points per game | 22.0 (107th of 138) | 35.6 (22nd of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 20.8 (37th of 138) | 28.1 (100th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.18 (114th of 138) | 6.09 (48th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.13 (42nd of 138) | 5.53 (76th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 230.1 (67th of 138) | 249.3 (42nd of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 106.8 (127th of 138) | 176.8 (42nd of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 36.5% (96th of 138) | 43.7% (40th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.88 (131st of 138) | 1.38 (79th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.38 (44th of 138) | 1.25 (60th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.000 (122nd of 138) | 0.217 (33rd of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.071 (8th of 138) | 0.050 (54th of 138) |
Key players
- John Mateer (Oklahoma): Expected to start under Witten after throwing 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions over his last three games.
- Isaiah Sategna (Oklahoma): Leads the team with 591 receiving yards but caught just 4 passes for 13 yards against South Carolina.
- Owen Heinecke (Oklahoma): Has 65 tackles and 8.5 tackles for loss, the center of a defense that ranks 9th in EPA allowed.
- Adepoju Adebawore (Oklahoma): Has 4.0 sacks in seven games, including 1.5 at Mississippi State.
- Tramell Jones Jr. (Florida): Starts in place of Philo after leading the 27-24 comeback win at Texas.
- Jadan Baugh (Florida): Has 13 rushing touchdowns this season but only 3.3 yards per carry over his last three games.
- Bailey Stockton (Florida): Questionable after catching 8 passes for 76 yards against Georgia.
- Myles Graham (Florida): Has 3.0 sacks over his last three games, including 2.0 against South Carolina.
Numbers that matter
| Oklahoma rushing EPA rank | 136th | The Sooners' run game is almost the worst in FBS, so Witten has to lean on the pass. |
|---|---|---|
| Florida third-down defense | 43.6% | Opponents convert at a rate that ranks 119th, a real opening for an Oklahoma offense that struggles to sustain drives. |
| Oklahoma third-down defense | 28.2% | Ranks 7th nationally, which is a hard environment for a quarterback making a new start. |
| Oklahoma turnovers per game | 1.88 | Ranks 131st, and short fields for Florida could decide a game priced near a touchdown. |
| Line movement | -4.0 to -6.5 | The market has moved toward Florida since opening and now sits right next to our -6.75. |
Oklahoma Sooners vs Florida Gators: quick answers
Who is favored in Oklahoma Sooners vs Florida Gators?
Florida is favored by 5.5 points (Florida -5.5).
What is the over/under for Oklahoma Sooners vs Florida Gators?
The total is 45 points.
When is Oklahoma Sooners vs Florida Gators?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 7:45 PM ET.
Where is Oklahoma Sooners vs Florida Gators played?
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Where is the money on Oklahoma Sooners vs Florida Gators?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Oklahoma Sooners: 53% of bets, 16% of the money; Florida Gators: 47% of bets, 84% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Florida Gators -5.5: 67% of bets, 23% of the money; Oklahoma Sooners +5.5: 33% of bets, 77% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 46.5: 47% of bets, 86% of the money; Under 46.5: 53% of bets, 14% of the money.