Georgia Bulldogs vs Ole Miss Rebels prediction: Without Kewan Lacy, Chambliss must outthrow Georgia's pass rush
Ole Miss loses its top back against one of the country's best run defenses, so the Sugar Bowl rematch runs through Trinidad Chambliss and an offensive line that almost never gives up sacks.
| Spread | Georgia -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 56.5 |
- Expect long, grinding drives. Ole Miss has to throw without Lacy, and Georgia's turnover edge could tip a close finish in Oxford.
- Ole Miss's protection, 4th nationally in sacks allowed, against a Georgia pass rush averaging 3.25 sacks per game.
- Our model makes Georgia a 3.6-point favorite with a 56.5 total, almost exactly where the market sits.
Chambliss carries the load
The Sugar Bowl still hangs over this one. Ole Miss won it 39-34 and knocked Georgia out of the playoff. Saturday night brings the third meeting in 13 months, and the stakes have only sharpened. Georgia is No. 2 in the first CFP rankings, while a two-loss Ole Miss needs this one at home to stay in the playoff conversation.
The Rebels will have to win it through the air. Kewan Lacy is out after dislocating his left shoulder against Texas, and Pete Golding said there is no timeline for his return. That removes Ole Miss's top back against the run defense it would least like to face. Georgia ranks 3rd in rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each snap moves the scoreboard). Makhi Frazier inherits the job at 5.2 yards per carry.
So the game falls to Trinidad Chambliss and a pass offense averaging 282.1 yards per game, 18th nationally. His protection has been elite: Ole Miss allows 0.62 sacks per game, 4th in the country. Georgia brings 3.25 sacks per game, 6th, and Quintavius Johnson has a sack in each of his last three games. Whichever front wins that duel probably decides the night.
Chambliss's recent passing is the worry. Over his last three games he has completed 54.9% of his throws with four interceptions. The Texas loss was the warning, with 52 attempts and three picks. He answered last week by running Auburn out of Oxford in the second half, when Ole Miss converted 13 of 16 third downs. The openings exist here too. Georgia ranks 51st in passing EPA allowed, and Horatio Fields has caught four touchdowns in the last three games.
Georgia's offense has cooled
Georgia's season numbers describe a juggernaut. Its 51.7% success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) ranks 3rd nationally. The last three games tell a different story. Against Alabama, Auburn and Florida, the offense's EPA per play fell to 0.108, down from 0.3 for the season. Scoring dropped to 23.7 points per game, including a 24-27 home loss to Auburn. Gunner Stockton threw for a season-low 101 yards in the Florida win.
Ole Miss's defense is the kind that can get him back on track. The Rebels allow conversions on 42.4% of third downs, 113th nationally. Georgia converts 51.6% of its own and ranks 3rd in points per scoring opportunity. The back end is also thinner. Safety Edwin Joseph is out, and leading tackler Keaton Thomas is questionable.
The one Ole Miss strength lines up against Georgia's run game. The Rebels stuff 23.9% of runs at or behind the line, 16th nationally. Georgia counters with 3.47 line yards per carry (a measure of push up front), 9th. Dwight Phillips Jr. averages 7.5 yards per carry, and Chauncey Bowens is questionable with a foot injury.
Neither offense lives on big plays. Georgia ranks 106th in explosiveness and Ole Miss 105th. That points to long drives, which raises the price of every mistake.
Hidden yards favor Georgia
Ole Miss makes more of those mistakes. The Rebels turn the ball over 1.5 times per game, 103rd nationally. Georgia takes it away 1.88 times per game, 9th, and forced four turnovers against Florida. Ole Miss also gives away 67.0 penalty yards per game, 109th.
Special teams tilt the same way. Georgia averages 27.3 yards per kick return, 14th, and Ole Miss ranks 117th in kick return yards allowed. The Rebels' offense already starts its drives at its own 27.9-yard line on average, 95th. For Ole Miss, field position has been an uphill fight before the first snap.
The number matches the market
The line opened at Georgia -3 and has moved to -3.5. The total sits at 56.5. Our model makes Georgia a 3.6-point favorite with a fair total of 56.5 and projects a 30.1 to 26.4 finish. That gives Ole Miss a 41% chance to win and leaves no meaningful gap with the full-game spread.
Georgia is 6-2 against the spread this season, and Ole Miss is 4-4. If you like Georgia to cover, its rushing total is the correlated angle. In our tested games, favorites that cover tend to go over their rushing lines, and we project the Bulldogs for 174 rushing yards.
Where the money is on Georgia Bulldogs vs Ole Miss Rebels
On the Kalshi moneyline: Georgia Bulldogs: 56% of bets, 65% of the money; Ole Miss Rebels: 44% of bets, 35% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Georgia Bulldogs -3.5: 70% of bets, 40% of the money; Ole Miss Rebels +3.5: 31% of bets, 60% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 56.5: 67% of bets, 52% of the money; Under 56.5: 34% of bets, 48% of the money.
Georgia Bulldogs vs Ole Miss Rebels stats (this season)
| Stat | Georgia Bulldogs | Ole Miss Rebels |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-1 | 6-2 |
| Points per game | 41.0 (4th of 138) | 37.1 (16th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 14.9 (9th of 138) | 24.0 (66th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 7.32 (5th of 138) | 6.12 (44th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.31 (8th of 138) | 5.47 (72nd of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 250.8 (39th of 138) | 282.1 (18th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 200.1 (24th of 138) | 157.5 (66th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 51.6% (11th of 138) | 50.5% (14th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 (51st of 138) | 1.50 (103rd of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.88 (9th of 138) | 1.50 (29th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.300 (10th of 138) | 0.233 (24th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.010 (28th of 138) | 0.109 (86th of 138) |
Key players
- Gunner Stockton (Georgia): He has 16 touchdown passes at 9.2 yards per attempt this season but has thrown 3 interceptions in the last three games.
- Dwight Phillips Jr. (Georgia): He averages 7.5 yards per carry and ran for 120 yards at Alabama.
- Chris Cole (Georgia): He has 9.0 tackles for loss this season, with 2.0 sacks in the last three games.
- Quintavius Johnson (Georgia): He has recorded a sack in each of his last three games, 3.0 in all.
- Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss): He has 2,189 passing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns, but his completion rate is 54.9% over the last three games.
- Makhi Frazier (Ole Miss): With Lacy out, he takes over a role in which he has averaged 5.2 yards per carry.
- Deuce Alexander (Ole Miss): He leads the team with 48 catches for 669 yards.
- Horatio Fields (Ole Miss): He has scored 4 touchdowns in the last three games.
Numbers that matter
| Ole Miss sacks allowed per game | 0.62 | That ranks 4th nationally and is the shield Chambliss needs against Georgia's pass rush. |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia sacks per game | 3.25 | That ranks 6th nationally and is the force that can stall an Ole Miss offense forced to throw. |
| Ole Miss 3rd-down conversions allowed | 42.4% | That ranks 113th, a soft spot for a Georgia offense trying to break out of a three-game slump. |
| Georgia offensive EPA per play, last 3 games | 0.108 | That is well below its season mark of 0.3, which ranks 10th nationally. |
| Ole Miss turnovers per game | 1.5 | That ranks 103rd, against a Georgia defense 9th in takeaways. |
Georgia Bulldogs vs Ole Miss Rebels: quick answers
Who is favored in Georgia Bulldogs vs Ole Miss Rebels?
Georgia is favored by 3.5 points (Georgia -3.5).
What is the over/under for Georgia Bulldogs vs Ole Miss Rebels?
The total is 56.5 points.
When is Georgia Bulldogs vs Ole Miss Rebels?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Where is Georgia Bulldogs vs Ole Miss Rebels played?
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Where is the money on Georgia Bulldogs vs Ole Miss Rebels?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Georgia Bulldogs: 56% of bets, 65% of the money; Ole Miss Rebels: 44% of bets, 35% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Georgia Bulldogs -3.5: 70% of bets, 40% of the money; Ole Miss Rebels +3.5: 31% of bets, 60% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 56.5: 67% of bets, 52% of the money; Under 56.5: 34% of bets, 48% of the money.