Iowa State Cyclones vs Baylor Bears prediction: Baylor's league-best pass rush waits for Jaylen Raynor and Iowa State

Raynor in the backfield crosshairs

Baylor leads the country with 4.25 sacks per game. Its havoc rate, the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup, is 20.8%, seventh nationally. That is the worst possible opponent for this Iowa State offense, which ranks 115th of 138 in havoc allowed.

The Cyclones struggle to stay on schedule. Their success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense ahead of the chains, is 39.0%, 112th nationally. Their third-down conversion rate ranks 123rd. What keeps them afloat is the big play: they rank 15th in explosiveness, and they cash in with 4.59 points per scoring opportunity, 12th in the country.

Raynor shows both sides. He was briefly benched and returned to throw for 309 yards and three touchdowns in the 51-49 upset of Oklahoma State. Against BYU, he managed 98 yards. Behind him, backup Connor Moberly is out roughly four weeks, so there is no fallback if the pass rush takes over.

Flora runs into a wall

Aiden Flora is the reason Iowa State has a pulse. He has 937 rushing yards at 7.2 per carry. He ran for a career-high 221 against Oklahoma State and was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week.

Baylor's run defense is a different problem. The Bears allow 99.4 rushing yards per game, 17th nationally, and their stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is 23.7%, also 17th. The last top-15 SP+ team Flora faced was Arizona, and it held him to 36 yards on 12 carries. If Baylor bottles him up early, Iowa State is left with a passing game that ranks 106th in yards per game, facing the nation's best sack unit.

Lagway against a sinking defense

Iowa State's defense is the bigger worry for Cyclones backers. Over the last three games it has allowed 37.3 points per game and 0.292 EPA per play (expected points added per play). Opponents succeeded on 49.8% of snaps in that stretch. For the season, the Cyclones rank 105th in passing EPA allowed, and their 1.25 sacks per game rank 115th.

That gives D.J. Lagway a clean pocket, which he hasn't always had. He threw for 319 yards and four touchdowns at UCF. Two weeks earlier, TCU held him to 22 completions on 53 attempts. Gavin Freeman is the go-to target, with 63 catches for 792 yards. Baylor will lean on the pass by necessity: its rushing EPA ranks 102nd, and lead back Dawson Pendergrass is averaging 3.6 yards per carry.

Klanderman's homecoming and hidden yards

Baylor fired Dave Aranda on Oct. 25 and handed the program to defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman. His debut was the 41-9 rout at UCF. Saturday is his first home game, on homecoming weekend, with Baylor's coaching search already underway.

The Bears also win the field-position battle. Their average start is the 33.6-yard line, fourth nationally, and their net punting ranks second. Iowa State starts at the 27.7, 100th. Baylor gives some of that back with 75.2 penalty yards per game, 129th, and a kicker who has made 15 of 21 field goals.

One caution against reading too much into the records: Iowa State's schedule has been tougher, with an average opponent SP+ of 8.2 against Baylor's 2.5. The Cyclones have also won the last three meetings, including 30-18 in Waco in 2023. Baylor has covered six of eight this season.

Where the number lands

The market opened at Baylor -9.2 and has moved to -10, with 30 books quoting. Our model makes it Baylor by 11.24 and gives the Bears a 76.0% chance to win. That is a small edge toward the home side. We set the total at 50.5, the same as the market.

What to watch:

• Iowa State's first-down success against Baylor's front. Long third downs favor the Bears.
• Linebacker Sullivan Schlimgen, Iowa State's leading tackler, who has a lower-body injury. Rogers said he could be available.
• Receiver Omari Hayes, who is listed questionable.
• Whether Baylor's penalties stall drives that its field position sets up.