Wagner vs UConn prediction: UConn reloads without Solo Ball as an all-new Wagner visits Storrs

A backcourt rebuilt on the fly

UConn enters this season ranked No. 4 in the AP preseason poll after a 34-6 run last season, but the guard room that carried that team looks different. Solo Ball will miss the year after wrist surgery announced in April. About a week ago, Dan Hurley said Ball could "potentially" return later in the season, though nothing official has changed. The short version: don't expect him on Nov. 9.

The better news is Braylon Mullins. He sat out both exhibitions with a lingering offseason injury, then returned and scored in the exhibition against Purdue earlier this week. The rest of the roster is reported healthy. Mullins made 72 threes last season and shot 88.9% at the line, so his presence matters for spacing.

The new scoring load falls partly on Nils Machowski, who averaged 17.2 points at Wofford while hitting 38.2% from three. Silas Demary Jr. runs it all; he averaged 5.9 assists per game last season for a team whose assist rate ranked 8th in Division I.

Wagner starts from zero

Wagner returns 0.0% of last season's minutes. Dwan McMillan, now in his first full season after the interim tag came off, has 14 newcomers, including 10 Division I transfers, two junior college transfers and two true freshmen. That makes the Seahawks' 14-17 record last season and every team stat behind it a weak guide to this group.

What little is visible came in an exhibition: Wagner beat the College of Staten Island 91-65, with Tajae Jones scoring 20. The transfers mostly played bench roles last season. Cam Estevez shot 40.6% from three at Fairfield, and Youssouf Singare made 68.2% of his shots at High Point in limited minutes. There is also a homecoming wrinkle: one Wagner newcomer from Bamako, Mali, was part of UConn's 2024 national title team. Picked fifth in the NEC, Wagner is building for conference play, not this night.

The paint belongs to UConn

UConn's defense last season held opponents to a 45.7% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times), 10th in Division I. It blocked 14.6% of opponents' two-point tries, 13th nationally. Big men Tarris Reed Jr. and Eric Reibe are gone, so the rim job shifts to Hines, who blocked 2.2 shots per game off the Seton Hall bench and made the Preseason All-Big East second team.

UConn's final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) last season was 30.3, 10th in the country. Wagner's final mark was -12.4, 299th. With this much roster churn on both sides, treat those as program baselines rather than forecasts. Still, the talent gap at the top of each roster points the same direction.

Few possessions, and a tired visitor

Both programs crawled last season. UConn's pace of 63.5 possessions per 40 minutes ranked 353rd; Wagner's 64 ranked 346th. Fewer trips down the floor limit how fast any lead can grow, which is worth remembering whenever a number goes up.

The schedule also tilts toward the Huskies. Wagner arrives at Gampel Pavilion after road games at Boston College on Nov. 3 and Miami on Nov. 6, a three-game swing of high-major opponents. Tip time hasn't been confirmed.

• Ball security: Wagner's turnover rate was 338th last season; a new backcourt has to prove it's different.
• Mullins' minutes: how much Hurley plays him in his first regular-season outing.
• Hines at the rim: whether UConn's interior defense survives the loss of its centers.