North Dakota vs Clemson prediction: Dylan Faulkner and Clemson's transfers face a gutted North Dakota

Clemson rebuilds through the portal

Clemson opens its season with most of last season's rotation gone and two returners hurt. Last season's final adjusted ratings put the Tigers 37th in net efficiency and North Dakota 278th. Neither number says much about these rosters, which is what makes this opener worth watching.

Clemson brings back 28.4% of last season's minutes, and the injury news cuts into that. As of about Oct. 28, Brad Brownell said the program is preparing with the expectation that forward Carter Welling, recovering from an ACL injury, will miss all of non-conference play. Guard Zac Foster tore the ACL in the same knee again, confirmed by an MRI on Oct. 12, with no timetable for a return.

That hands the frontcourt to Dylan Faulkner, who averaged 17.2 points at Samford last season and shot 61.7% from the field, almost all of it near the rim. He was slowed by a toe injury in the summer but played in the Oct. 28 exhibition, an 84-70 win over Presbyterian. Ace Buckner, back from shoulder surgery, also played and was among the leading scorers. David Fuchs, who averaged 12.7 points at San Francisco, gives Clemson a second big who can score.

North Dakota starts nearly from scratch

North Dakota's turnover is even steeper. The Fighting Hawks return 20.3% of last season's minutes. Greyson Uelmen took his 17.1 points per game to Northern Iowa, and Eli King is out of eligibility. Last season's team went 18-17 and finished second in the Summit League; this group was picked sixth. Treat last season's team numbers as a sketch of Paul Sather's system, not of the players.

The returner who matters most is Zach Kraft, who made 39.2% of his threes last season on 176 attempts. Tyler Wagner arrives from Austin Peay and Samuel Hincapie from Le Moyne, both after bench roles. Freshmen Carter Evanson and Jayden Moore are on the roster, and starting roles have not been reported.

Inside is where it tilts

If any of last season's North Dakota defense carries over, Faulkner is the problem. Opponents made 56.6% of their two-pointers, 348th of 365, and the Fighting Hawks sent opponents to the line at a rate (free throw attempts per shot) that ranked 344th.

The catch for Clemson is at the stripe. Faulkner shot 56.3% on free throws at Samford, so fouling him is a reasonable plan for an undersized opponent. The free throws Clemson wants late belong to guards Cole Certa, an 89.2% shooter at Notre Dame, and Liutauras Lelevicius from TCU.

Pace and loose balls

Brownell's teams grind. Clemson played at 64.7 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 315th nationally, while North Dakota ran at 68.9. Expect the home team to set the tempo.

North Dakota's best weapon last season was pressure: it forced turnovers on 20.6% of opponent possessions, 26th in the country. Clemson's own turnover rate ranked 25th last season, but Jestin Porter, a 27.1-minute starter, is gone. A new Clemson backcourt protecting the ball is the opening North Dakota needs to steal extra shots. The exhibition offered an early hint: Clemson jumped out to a 15-2 lead.

The tip is listed for 7:00 PM ET, though North Dakota's schedule shows 6:00 PM.