Stonehill vs Columbia prediction: Stonehill's nearly new roster tests Columbia's returning core in Morningside Heights

Stonehill starts nearly from zero

Chris Kraus has seen plenty in his 13th season at Stonehill, but rarely a roster this new. Players on this season's team accounted for just 10.4% of last season's minutes. The scoring that carried a 12-21 team is gone: Davante Hackett (13.6 points per game) left for Tennessee Tech and Hermann Koffi (12.8) for App State.

That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide, and they weren't flattering anyway. Stonehill finished 361st of 365 in adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). The rebuild leans on transfers from Florida A&M, Yale, Le Moyne, Maine and Southern Miss, none of whom averaged six points a game last season. The most intriguing returner is William Batchelder, who started all three games he played and hit 46.7% of his threes in that brief stretch.

Columbia keeps its shooters and bigs

Columbia lost its engine when Kenny Noland, a 17.1-point scorer, transferred to Michigan. Still, the Lions return 55.9% of last season's minutes, and the pieces that stayed fit together. Mason Ritter and Connor Igoe anchor the frontcourt, and Gerard O'Keefe made 42.9% of his threes on 98 attempts.

Last season's 16-12 team shot well, ranking 74th in effective field goal percentage (a measure that counts threes as 1.5 field goals). An Ivy preview picks Kevin Hovde's second Columbia team sixth in the league. Its ceiling depends on whether freshman point guard Josh Pratt or Nino Žarković can take over the ball. A shaky Stonehill defense on the perimeter would give either one a gentle early test.

The glass favors the Lions

Columbia's sharpest weapon last season was its offensive rebounding. The Lions grabbed 37.5% of their own misses, 13th in the country. Stonehill was strong on its defensive boards last season, ranking 31st, but almost none of those rebounders are back.

Size points the same way. Columbia's roster averages 77.5 inches weighted by minutes, a little taller than Stonehill's 76.5. If Ritter and Igoe win second chances early, a young Stonehill lineup will have a hard time keeping pace.

Turnovers and a slow clock

Neither team protected the ball last season. Stonehill gave it away on 20.0% of possessions (347th) and Columbia on 19.3% (331st), and neither forced many turnovers in return. Two new backcourts make sloppy stretches likely, especially early in November.

Stonehill also played slowly, ranking 336th in pace last season. Kraus may again try to shorten the game and limit possessions, which is the usual way for an outmanned team to stay close.

A crowded first week

Both teams arrive on their third game in eight days. Columbia opens with Elon on Nov. 2 and Old Westbury on Nov. 5. Stonehill plays Curry on Nov. 2 and visits Fordham on Nov. 5, with a trip to Texas Tech on Nov. 14 still ahead.

Columbia listed no injuries as of Oct. 28, and Stonehill had none listed either.

• Who runs the point for Columbia, Pratt or Žarković
• Columbia's offensive rebounding in the first ten minutes
• Whether Batchelder becomes Stonehill's go-to scorer