Grambling vs Texas prediction: Matas Vokietaitis anchors a remade Texas against an almost entirely new Grambling

The one constant in Austin

Texas enters Sean Miller's second season as a projected preseason top-10 team with a roster that barely resembles last year's. Players on this team logged just 13.2% of last season's Texas minutes. The biggest exception is the most important one: Matas Vokietaitis, who started every game and averaged 15.6 points on 61.7% shooting without attempting a three.

He is the reference point for everything else. Texas's frontcourt adds David Punch, who blocked 1.9 shots a game at TCU last season, so the Longhorns can put two bodies around the rim. Freshman forward Declan Duru entered the transfer portal in mid-October, which thins the depth behind them. Against a Grambling team that ranked 271st in block rate last season, Vokietaitis should find room to work early.

A backcourt without Mikey Lewis

The guard rotation is where Texas has questions. Saint Mary's transfer Mikey Lewis fractured the fifth metatarsal in his right foot and had surgery; as of mid-October, Miller expected him back in December, which would keep him out of this game.

That puts the ball with Isaiah Johnson, who scored 16.9 points a game at Colorado last season and shot 37.8% from three. His late-July thumb injury is behind him, and Miller had him back at full practice. Auburn transfer Elyjah Freeman and freshman Austin Goosby, who returned to practice in September after a summer injury, are in line for bigger roles. There is a caution flag: Texas's Oct. 25 exhibition against St. John's at Madison Square Garden reportedly fell well short of expectations, though no score surfaced.

Grambling starts over

Patrick Crarey II is also in his second season, coming off a 14-19 finish and a 7-11 SWAC mark. His rebuild is far more complete. Grambling's roster returns just 5.1% of last season's minutes, and Fitts, a forward who played 10.7 minutes a game, is the most experienced holdover. The full roster still hasn't been firmly settled in public, and the Tigers are projected ninth in the SWAC.

The transfers carry little scoring résumé. Dwayne Pierce averaged 8.5 points at North Carolina A&T with a 41.4% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 field goals). Brandon Hardy shot 35.8% from three at Southern in a smaller role. That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide, with one style worth noting: Grambling forced turnovers on 23.0% of opponent possessions, fourth nationally, but gave the ball away on 22.7% of its own, 363rd. Whether Crarey's new guards inherit that chaos is the main unknown.

Whistles and second chances

If last season's tendencies hold at all, Texas has two structural edges. The Longhorns ranked 12th nationally in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt), and Grambling's defense ranked 303rd at keeping teams off the line. Texas also grabbed 36.0% of its own misses, 34th in the country, while Grambling ranked 258th in defensive rebounding.

Texas rarely forced turnovers last season, ranking 356th, so Grambling's ball-handling issues may not be exploited as much. Grambling played at the 328th-fastest pace, and a slower game with Texas living at the line and on the glass is the likeliest shape.

What to watch

• How quickly Texas gets Vokietaitis and Punch post touches against a new Grambling front line.
• Johnson's ball security if Grambling's guards pressure the way last season's team did.
• Texas's free throw volume as a measure of how physical the Longhorns play inside in the opener of a three-game home stand.