South Carolina Upstate vs Coastal Carolina prediction: Coastal Carolina and Upstate open with almost nobody back from last season

Two rosters built from scratch

Last season's box scores won't tell you much about this game. Upstate brings back just 7.2% of last season's minutes and 2.8% of its points. Its three leading scorers are gone: Karmani Gregory (15.6 points a game) to Indiana State, Mason Bendinger to Western Michigan and Carmelo Adkins to Rice.

Coastal Carolina kept more, but not much more. The Chanticleers return 20.7% of last season's minutes, and the guards who carried them left. Joshua Beadle averaged 17.8 points, AJ Dancler 15.7 and Rasheed Jones, now at Rutgers, 14.7. What remains is a bench trio of DaJohn Craig, Tristan Thompson and Derrick Green, none of whom started a game last season, plus a transfer class pulled from Memphis, Miami (Ohio), Kennesaw State, Elon, Marshall and Wake Forest.

That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide on both sides. The more useful question is which program's system travels better across a roster change.

Gray's defense is the constant

Coastal's case starts with Justin Gray, entering his third season after a 19-13 finish that was a nine-win improvement. The Chanticleers went 11-7 in Sun Belt play and tied for second, and they did it with defense.

Last season Coastal held opponents to a 45.9% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times), 12th of 365 nationally. Inside the arc it was even better: opponents shot 44.7% on twos, seventh in the country. It finished possessions too, ranking 38th in defensive rebound rate.

The tradeoff was a defense that never gambled. Coastal's forced turnover rate ranked 364th, next to last in Division I. If the new group keeps that profile, Upstate will get few cheap baskets but plenty of clean half-court looks to miss.

The offense was the problem. Coastal ranked 347th in two-point percentage and leaned on the three, ranking 109th in the share of shots taken from deep. Craig, who made 37% of his threes last season, and Trey Perry give Gray shooters to keep that approach going.

Upstate's size is real

The clearest physical difference sits in the frontcourt. Upstate's roster carries a minutes-weighted average height of 81.2 inches, against 77.6 for Coastal.

Upstate already played big last season, ranking 43rd nationally in block rate, and returning center Coen Collier blocked 1.3 shots a game in 14.2 minutes. Miles Webb, a forward who started 20 games at Delaware State, shot 56% from the field there and should be the first option inside.

That sets up the game's central tension. Coastal's interior defense was elite last season, and its own two-point shooting was among the worst in the country. Against a taller lineup, Coastal may live even more on the perimeter.

Upstate's weakness, if it carries over, comes late. The Spartans made 68.5% of their free throws last season, 312th nationally, and Webb shot 48.1% at the line at Delaware State.

Series and setting

The last meeting went Upstate's way, 85-78 in overtime on Dec. 3, 2025, at Upstate. Coastal won the previous visit to Conway, 72-70, in November 2023. Neither result says much about two rosters this changed.

No favorite is posted yet. Upstate was picked eighth of nine in the Big South preseason poll. Neither team has announced an injury; the Upstate injury pages that list nobody out are undated. The game streams on ESPN+.

What to watch

• Coastal's two-point defense. Whether the new Chanticleers still wall off the paint against Webb and Collier.
• Coastal's three-point volume. A team that struggled inside will need Craig and Perry to hit from deep.
• Upstate at the line. A shaky free-throw team in a close game is a live late-game factor.
• The opening line. Watch where books set this one once it posts, given how little of either roster has a track record.