Cleveland State vs Bowling Green prediction: Cleveland State returns zero minutes for its Bowling Green test

Two rosters built from scratch

Season openers in November usually test how much a team kept. This one tests how much each team rebuilt. Cleveland State returns 0.0% of last season's minutes, a full reset in Rob Summers' second year. Bowling Green isn't far behind, bringing back 20.3% of its minutes under fourth-year coach Todd Simon.

That gap matters more than it looks. The Falcons keep Josiah Shackelford, a guard who averaged 11.3 points last season, plus a few bench pieces who know Simon's system. The Vikings will lean on five transfers and whoever else Summers assembled, with no one who played for him last season.

The departures sting on both sides. Bowling Green lost Javontae Campbell, its 18.7-point scorer, to Cincinnati. Cleveland State lost Dayan Nessah to Loyola Chicago, along with Tre Beard and Jaidon Lipscomb, a pair of guards who both made better than 41% of their threes.

A South Carolina State reunion

The most interesting matchup involves two guards who shared a locker room last season. Jayden Johnson arrives at Bowling Green after averaging 13.4 points and 3.5 assists at South Carolina State. Owen Bronston Jr. lands at Cleveland State from the same program after scoring 10.3 a game.

Both carried big loads. Johnson's usage rate (the share of team possessions he ended while on the floor) was 27.1%, and Bronston's was 25%. Neither was especially efficient, so whoever finds a rhythm first against a familiar opponent could set the tone.

The Falcons also added Juan Cranford Jr. from Eastern Kentucky, who made 81 threes last season. Cleveland State's most efficient newcomer may be forward Derek Vorst, who posted a 59.1% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes as 1.5 makes) at Indiana State.

Last season's identities, loosely held

With so little coming back, last season's team numbers are a weak guide. They still hint at how each coach wants to play.

Summers' Vikings lived behind the arc. Their 3-point attempt rate ranked 18th of 365, and they made 37.5% of those shots. The defense was the problem: Cleveland State allowed 121.6 points per 100 possessions, 362nd nationally, and its adjusted net rating finished 323rd.

Simon's Falcons won with defense and hands. They ranked 27th in defensive efficiency and 10th in steal rate, forcing turnovers at a 20.4% clip. That pressure lines up against a Cleveland State offense that coughed the ball up on 18.2% of its possessions last season, 274th nationally. Campbell's 3.0 steals a game are gone, though, so the question is whether the new Bowling Green guards can rebuild that pressure.

Size is the one current-roster edge for the Vikings. Their minutes-weighted average height is 78.1 inches, compared with 76.4 for Bowling Green.

Home opener, long road

This is Bowling Green's home opener at the Stroh Center, and it starts a hard stretch for the visitors: four straight games away from home. These programs haven't met since Dec. 15, 2019, when Bowling Green won 72-58 on this same floor. No injury or eligibility news has surfaced for either team.

What to watch

• Whether Bowling Green's guards generate live-ball turnovers against an unfamiliar Cleveland State backcourt.
• How many threes the Vikings hunt under a coach who let them fire freely last season.
• Johnson against Bronston, two former teammates who both like to shoot.