Eastern Illinois vs Notre Dame prediction: Notre Dame's transfer haul faces an Eastern Illinois team starting over

Two rebuilds, unequal parts

Notre Dame and Eastern Illinois both spent the offseason tearing down and starting again. The difference is what came back in the boxes. The Irish lost Jalen Haralson to Tennessee and Cole Certa to Clemson, then restocked with scorers who had already produced elsewhere. Eastern Illinois kept only four players from last year's roster, and those returners account for 10.1% of last season's minutes and 7.8% of its points.

That makes last season's team numbers a shaky guide for the Panthers, who went 13-20. Notre Dame finished 13-18 and returns 34.3% of its minutes, a more stable core built around Braeden Shrewsberry and Brady Koehler. The ACC preseason poll still projects the Irish to miss the conference tournament, so this home date in Micah Shrewsberry's fourth season is a chance to show the new pieces fit.

The Duncomb question

The biggest import is Logan Duncomb, a center who averaged 18.2 points at Winthrop last season on 60% shooting with a 30.4% usage rate. His offensive rating of 130.9 was the best of anyone on either roster. He also gives Notre Dame an interior anchor it lacked: the Irish ranked 285th in opponent two-point percentage last season.

His status is unsettled. Duncomb logged four minutes in the Oct. 17 exhibition at Dayton and was listed day-to-day around Oct. 24, when he wasn't expected to play at DePaul; an undated injury page lists no Notre Dame injuries. There has been no newer word. Tommy Ahneman, back from a left-knee operation that cost him all of last season, scored eight points at Dayton and is the fallback inside.

That Dayton exhibition was a 75-65 loss with only one Irish player in double figures. Ethan Roberts, a Penn transfer who averaged 16.9 points last season, led the way.

Where the Panthers can steal possessions

Marty Simmons is still coaching Eastern Illinois, and his defense was the program's calling card last season. The Panthers forced turnovers on 19.9% of possessions, 46th of 365, and held opponents to 31.4% from three, 45th nationally. Their offense was the problem: 349th in efficiency, and among the least willing three-point shooting teams in the country by attempt rate.

Whether that defense survives a near-total roster swap is the open question. If it does, it targets a Notre Dame side that ranked 192nd in turnover rate last season and now runs through new ball handlers. Gonzaga transfer Braeden Smith averaged 3.6 assists there and is the steadiest option. On the other end, the Irish do little to force mistakes; they ranked 342nd in forced turnover rate last season, which gives a thin Panthers backcourt room to breathe.

Threes and the schedule

Notre Dame built its offense around the arc last season, taking 43.5% of its shots from three and making 35.6%, 88th nationally. Shrewsberry hit 40.2% on 219 attempts and Roberts shot 41.2% at Penn. That volume tests a Panthers perimeter defense whose personnel is mostly new.

The calendar adds weight. Eastern Illinois opens with three straight road games against power-conference teams, Indiana and Iowa before this trip to South Bend. Notre Dame starts Nov. 1 against Villanova at the Eternal City Tip-Off in Rome, then stays home with no true nonconference road game all season.