Minnesota vs Cincinnati prediction: Cincinnati's all-new roster gets its first real test from Minnesota

A program starting from zero

Cincinnati opens the Jerrod Calhoun era with a roster that barely knows its own building. Players on this season's team accounted for just 0.2% of last season's minutes and none of its points. Calhoun, a UC alum hired March 24, replaced nearly everyone.

That makes last season's numbers a poor guide to this team. The Bearcats finished last season 17th nationally in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions), but the players who built that defense are gone. Baba Miller and Moustapha Thiam, now at Michigan, anchored the paint, and the block rate that ranked 48th left with them.

What arrived is a wave of high-usage guards. MJ Collins Jr. averaged 17.5 points at Utah State and made 36.1% of his threes on 227 attempts. Javontae Campbell scored 18.7 a game at Bowling Green and averaged 3.0 steals. Trevian Carson brings 6.5 rebounds a game from North Dakota State, a useful number on a roster this guard-heavy. Tyler Tejada averaged 17.7 points at Towson last season. The talent is real. Whether it fits together is the question this game starts to answer.

Minnesota kept its foundation

The Gophers went 15-18 last season and finished 11th in the Big Ten, but Niko Medved, in year two and extended in July, held on to more than most coaches did. Players on this roster logged 60.5% of last season's minutes.

The biggest loss is Cade Tyson, who averaged 19.6 points and carried the offense. The biggest return is Jaylen Crocker-Johnson, who was cleared to practice around June after a foot injury ended his season. He averaged 13.4 points and 6.8 rebounds in 24 games before that, and he will likely take on more of the scoring load.

Bobby Durkin is the floor-spacer, hitting 39.2% from three last season on 204 attempts. Isaac Asuma started all 33 games and plays heavy minutes, though his 30.4% three-point shooting left room to grow. Michigan transfer Malick Kordel, a 7-2 center, gives Minnesota a size option Cincinnati's guard-heavy rotation can't easily match.

A slow game, by design

Last season Minnesota played at one of the slowest tempos in the country, ranking 361st in pace at 62.7 possessions per 40 minutes. The Gophers also led the nation in assist rate, assisting on 71.0% of their made baskets, and took threes on 47.2% of their shots, 30th-most nationally.

That profile suits the returners. Durkin, Asuma and Crocker-Johnson all ran that system, and continuity matters most in a passing offense built on timing. Cincinnati, with new players learning one another, would benefit from chaos. Campbell's steal numbers suggest Calhoun has the personnel to press the issue, and turning Minnesota's long possessions into live-ball turnovers may be the Bearcats' clearest path to easy points.

Minnesota's defense also kept opponents off the free-throw line last season, ranking 25th in opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt). Against a new Cincinnati team still finding its half-court offense, cheap points will be scarce.

Cincinnati's injury list is long

The Bearcats' preseason has been crowded with injury tags, and several statuses remain unsettled less than two weeks before tip.

• Tylen Riley, the Tulsa transfer and projected starter, hurt his hand in late July. Calhoun said he would be reevaluated in four to six weeks, and no newer update has surfaced. Riley averaged 15.0 points at Tulsa.
• Javontae Campbell carries an undisclosed injury from October preseason.
• Elijah Perryman has a calf injury and missed the Illinois exhibition.
• Myles Colvin, Akai Fleming and Deshaun Vaden also carry injury tags with few details.

MJ Collins Jr.'s eligibility for this season is unconfirmed: one report says he is eligible, but no formal ruling has been found. Minnesota has no reported injuries, though no current injury report has confirmed that either.

What to watch

• Whether Riley and Campbell are in uniform. Without them, Cincinnati's backcourt depth thins fast.
• Kordel's minutes against a Cincinnati rotation built mostly from guards.
• Durkin's volume from three. He shot 87.5% at the line too, a useful closer if the game is tight.
• The tempo. A game in Minnesota's preferred rhythm favors the team that knows its own sets.

This is also the start of a home-and-home series, the first meeting between the programs since 2006, with the return game in Minneapolis in 2027-28.