Kansas City vs Jacksonville prediction: Mark Turgeon's rebuilt UMKC tests Hayden Wood and Jacksonville's new-look Dolphins

A program starting from zero

Kansas City is a new team in nearly every sense. Mark Turgeon was hired in February after Marvin Menzies was not retained, his son Will joined the staff as an assistant, and the program is moving its home games to Municipal Auditorium this season.

The roster turned over just as completely. UMKC returns 0.0% of last season's minutes, so the 4-27 record, the 1-15 Summit League mark and an adjusted net efficiency that ranked 356th of 365 belong to players who are gone. (Adjusted efficiency measures points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents.) The four biggest departures, Jayson Petty, CJ Evans, Karmello Branch and Jerome Palm, all started most of the season. For a first game away from home, nothing from that season tells you much about this team's identity.

Wood holds Jacksonville together

Jacksonville rebuilt too, just not from scratch. The Dolphins bring back three guards and 11 newcomers, five of them freshmen, and the returners account for 25.8% of last season's minutes.

Hayden Wood is the reason that share matters. He scored 11.8 points a game last season with a 124.8 offensive rating (points produced per 100 possessions) and made 37.7% of his threes. He scored 23 in the 82-79 ASUN Tournament loss to Bellarmine that ended last season.

The scoring load around him shifts to transfers. Caleb Williams, a Jacksonville native, averaged 15.6 points at Lafayette on a 27.4% usage rate, meaning he finished a large share of his team's possessions. Jamie Phillips Jr. put up 16.0 points a game in 17 games at Stetson. Jordan Mincy, entering his sixth season, has to fit three high-volume guards together quickly.

UMKC's shooters against a soft perimeter

Turgeon's most interesting additions can shoot. Carl Daughtery Jr. made 47 of 112 threes at UC Davis, a 42% clip, and Sebastian Hartmann hit 43.5% in seven games at Chattanooga. Jaylen Smith brings more ball handling from East Tennessee State, with 2.8 assists a game.

Jacksonville's defense gave those kinds of players room last season. Opponents posted a 52.9% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times), which ranked 287th. The Dolphins' rotation is mostly new, so that number is a starting point rather than a verdict.

Fouls and the glass

Two of Jacksonville's habits from last season are worth watching. Its defense fouled often: opponents' free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) reached 42.3%, which ranked 337th. Its offense crashed the glass well, grabbing 33.6% of its own misses, 96th nationally.

Both numbers come with caveats. Forwards Jason Thirdkill Jr. and Donovan Rivers are gone, and frontcourt transfer Rex Stirling played 14.5 minutes a game at Wofford. UMKC's own rebounding was poor last season, with a 65.0% defensive rebound rate that ranked 350th, but none of those rebounders are on the roster. Forward Assane Diop, at 5.2 rebounds a game at San Diego, is the most experienced big Turgeon added. Minutes-weighted, the two rosters are close in height, so the glass may come down to effort and scheme more than size.