UNC Greensboro vs UIC prediction: UIC's returning core tests a UNC Greensboro roster built from scratch

One program reloads, one restarts

The most important number in this game is about who is on the floor, not about anything either team did last season. UNC Greensboro returns just 2.1% of last season's minutes. The two holdovers, Clyde Bailey II and Chane Bynum, played less than seven minutes a night between them as reserves. Justin Neely, who averaged 17.9 points and 11.5 rebounds, is now at Colorado. Most of the rest of the rotation is gone too.

That makes the Spartans' 2025-26 numbers a poor guide. They went 15-19 and finished 305th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency, which measures points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents. That rating describes players who mostly aren't there anymore.

UIC is in the opposite position. The Flames return 58.6% of last season's minutes from a 19-16 team, including four guards who each started at least 15 games. When a roster is new and the season is barely a week old, that kind of familiarity often counts for more than talent does.

Who UNC Greensboro is now

Braxton Stacker is the closest thing the Spartans have to a proven lead option. He started all 33 games at Southeast Missouri State and scored 11.8 points per game. His efficiency was modest, with a 31.9% mark from three. Zavier Fitch adds size after pulling down 6.2 rebounds a game at Wagner. RJ Greer shot 42.9% from deep at Davidson, but in limited minutes off the bench.

There is a homecoming angle here too. Ante Beljan played for UIC last season and made 62.9% of his shots in a small role. Now he returns to Credit Union 1 Arena in the other jersey.

The Spartans play Milligan on Nov. 4, which gives them one tune-up before the trip to Chicago.

UIC's pressure and second chances

Last season UIC's identity was winning extra possessions. The Flames forced turnovers on 20.9% of opponent possessions, 21st in the country. They also grabbed 36.8% of their own misses, 22nd. That gave them extra shots against almost everyone.

The guards and bigs are the core of that pressure. Mekhi Lowery averaged 1.4 steals and 5.8 rebounds from the backcourt. Lucas Scroggins, a transfer from Saint Peter's, blocked 1.1 shots per game and made 67.3% of his attempts around the rim. A new UNC Greensboro backcourt handling ball pressure on the road is the matchup most likely to decide this game. Most of the players who gave the Spartans their good ball security last season are gone.

Can UIC find a jump shot

Last season's weakness was obvious. UIC ranked 324th in 3-point attempt rate and made only 32.1% of its threes (286th), so the offense lived on putbacks and pressure.

Benny Gealer is the obvious fix. At Stanford he made 41% of 210 three-point attempts, with a 60.3% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes). Asa Thomas, who shot 38.3% from three at Furman, would be the other new shooter, but his status is unsettled. Thomas has been listed as out for the season with a hip injury. UIC hasn't confirmed that, and he still appears on the team's online roster. If he is out, Gealer and Rashund Washington Jr. carry more of the shooting load. Washington posted a 58.8% effective field goal percentage last season.

What to watch

UIC played slowly last season. UIC ranked 312th in pace, and a grind-it-out game favors the side that knows its sets. - Ahmad Henderson II's shot selection: He used 31.1% of UIC's possessions last season but shot 29.3% from three. - History: The only recent meeting went to UNC Greensboro 58-57 on a neutral floor in November 2023, a different era for both rosters. - The Thomas question: Check his status before tip-off.