Syracuse vs Indiana prediction: Indiana's new Hoosiers and McNamara's Syracuse rebuild collide in Indianapolis

Two programs starting over

Indiana and Syracuse both tore it down this offseason, and Monday night in Indianapolis is one of the first real looks at what each built. Syracuse returns only 15.6% of last season's minutes. Indiana returns 17.2%. Last season's team numbers describe players who are mostly gone, so treat them as background at best.

The Orange are also learning a new coach. Gerry McNamara, a 2003 national champion as a player, came over from Siena to replace Adrian Autry after a 15-17 season. He added seven transfers and five freshmen around the only returners of note, Sadiq White Jr. and Kiyan Anthony. Indiana is in Year 2 under Darian DeVries after an 18-14 finish, and it lost its two leading scorers, Lamar Wilkerson and Tucker DeVries, to NBA Exhibit 10 deals. The program's stated new identity is physicality.

Syracuse's health is the question

Syracuse's exhibition run left a trail of injury notes, all of them from before its scheduled Nov. 2 opener against New Haven. Aiden Tobiason, the Temple transfer expected to start, hurt his hamstring about four minutes into the exhibition loss to UConn. McNamara's newest update said "a couple of weeks," with the New Haven opener as the target. He scored 15.3 points a game at Temple last season with an offensive rating of 122.9, so his status matters.

The list goes on. Anthony has knee tendinitis and played eight minutes against Siena. Tasman Goodrick, also dealing with knee tendinitis, sat out that game. Garwey Dual, coming off collarbone surgery, sprained an ankle and still logged 12 minutes. Mark Morano returned from a hamstring strain to score 18 in the 81-76 exhibition win over Siena, a game in which a 13-point second-half lead shrank to one late. No Indiana injuries turned up in our search.

The fight in the paint

Indiana rebuilt its frontcourt with proven shot-blockers. Aiden Sherrell averaged 2.2 blocks a game at Alabama last season with an offensive rating of 131.6. Samet Yigitoglu pulled down 7.8 rebounds a game at SMU. Returner Sam Alexis shot 68.7% from the field last season. The Hoosiers are slightly bigger too, at 79.2 inches minutes-weighted to Syracuse's 78.6.

Syracuse's answer is Luke Wilson, who shot 64% at App State with 1.8 blocks per game. Rebounding is the spot to watch. Last season's Orange ranked 325th of 365 in defensive rebound rate (the share of opponents' misses they grabbed), though nearly all of those rebounders are gone.

Guards who can get to the line

Markus Burton is the engine Indiana bought. He scored 18.5 points a game in 10 games at Notre Dame last season, using 31.3% of possessions while on the floor, and shot 91.7% at the line. Bryce Lindsay adds volume shooting after making 78 threes at Villanova.

Syracuse counters with Siena transfer Gavin Doty, who scored 18.0 points a game and shot 85.8% on free throws. That matters for a program that shot 64.8% at the line last season, 361st nationally. If this game is close late, Doty and Tobiason are the Orange players you want shooting; Wilson, at 56.7% last season, is not.

Indianapolis stakes

The game is neutral by designation but sits in Indiana's home state, at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. History favors Syracuse, which leads the series 6-1. The last meeting was a 112-110 double-overtime Orange win at the Carrier Dome in November 2021. For Indiana, a win counts as Quadrant 1 only if Syracuse finishes top 50 in the NET. It is also McNamara's first major non-conference test, a quick read on whether his portal class can compete with a Big Ten roster built the same way.