South Carolina State vs Chicago State prediction: Chicago State rebuilds almost from scratch before South Carolina State visits

A roster built from scratch

Chicago State will take its home floor on Nov. 9 with almost nobody who played for it last winter. Players on this season's roster accounted for 7.7% of last season's minutes and 4.5% of its points. That makes the 7-25 team from 2025-26 a weak guide to this one.

South Carolina State has more continuity, though not much. The Bulldogs went 10-22 last season and bring back 29.6% of their minutes. They also arrive in the middle of a long November road swing. This is a game between two programs still figuring out who they are.

Bussie turns to the portal

Landon Bussie, in his second season, rebuilt through transfers. Bryan Akanmu started 21 games at Wagner. Armari Carraway comes from Charleston Southern, Mike Price from Cal State Bakersfield, Davius Loury from Cal State Northridge and Malik Olafioye from Eastern Illinois. None was a primary scorer at his last stop, so expect the offense to come from several hands rather than one.

The only real holdover is guard Malek Robinson, a 22-game starter whose value came on defense. The scoring that left is the bigger story. CJ Ray led the Cougars at 13.5 points a game, and Doyel Cockrill III is now at Nicholls.

Treadwell leads the Bulldogs

Erik Martin's best returning piece is guard Noah Treadwell, who made 72 threes at 35.3% last season. He is the one Bulldog with a proven shot. Chris Parker adds rebounding from the guard spot, Derwin Hodge Jr. gives size up front, and Mercyhurst transfer Deshaun Jackson Jr. brings ball-handling. Freshmen Christian Barnes, Clayton Everett Jr. and Treven Raymon are also on the roster.

South Carolina State lost its top scorer, Jayden Johnson (13.4 points a game), to Bowling Green, and Owen Bronston Jr. left for Cleveland State. Treadwell will have to shoot a lot.

The turnover battle

Ball security was South Carolina State's biggest flaw last season. The Bulldogs turned it over on 21.4% of possessions (turnover rate is giveaways per 100 possessions), 356th of 365 teams. Chicago State's defense lived on takeaways, forcing turnovers on 20.5% of possessions, and its steal rate ranked 24th.

The caveat is that most of those Chicago State defenders are gone. Robinson is the exception, and his steals came in limited minutes. The Bulldogs' sloppiness may be the more durable trait, because they return 29.6% of their minutes to Chicago State's 7.7%.

Inside, and at the line

Chicago State's interior defense last season was the worst in Division I. Opponents made 59.8% of their twos, 365th of 365. South Carolina State struggled to finish inside itself, making 44.9% of its twos (356th), but it got to the line. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 41.0% ranked 39th.

The catch is what happened once the Bulldogs got there. They shot 66.9% at the line, 345th nationally. In a close game with two inexperienced rosters, those misses could matter.

Schedule and the missing line

Chicago State opens at No. 7 Texas on Nov. 2, so this home date follows a likely lopsided test. South Carolina State plays an exhibition against Allen tonight, Oct. 30, and then begins a November road stretch that includes USC Upstate and Chicago State. Notre Dame follows. Tip time is still listed as TBA.

No spread or total has been posted. The teams were scheduled to play in Chicago on Dec. 1, 2025, but that game was canceled when South Carolina State couldn't travel because of weather.

• Whether Chicago State's transfers keep last season's takeaway habit
• Treadwell's three-point volume
• Free throws if the game stays tight late