Radford vs Tennessee prediction: Tennessee debuts a transfer-built roster with its point guard in question

Two rosters starting over

Tennessee is ranked No. 8 in the AP poll, and almost nobody responsible for that ranking wore orange last season. The Vols return 9.5% of last season's minutes. Radford returns 9.1%. That makes the 2025-26 team numbers a loose guide on both benches. Tennessee finished 14th nationally in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), but that describes a team that has left.

Rick Barnes rebuilt through the portal. Juke Harris scored 21.4 points per game at Wake Forest last season. Tyler Lundblade shot 40.6% from three at Belmont. Dai Dai Ames (California) and Jalen Haralson (Notre Dame) were both featured scorers, and Loyola Chicago center Miles Rubin anchors the interior. On talent alone, this is a mismatch. The open question is how quickly a group this new learns to play together.

The point guard question

Terrence Hill Jr., the VCU transfer expected to start at point guard, left Tennessee's exhibition at Duke early with a lower-body injury. The newest report, from earlier this week, says the injury isn't as bad as first feared, but no return date has been given and Tennessee hasn't said whether he plays Monday.

The rest of the injury list is just as unsettled. Lundblade has been working back from back surgery, and the latest word is only that he is inching closer to a return. Freshman wing Ralph Scott is set for knee surgery that will hold him out. Sophomore guard Troy Henderson hurt his right leg in the same Duke exhibition, and no update on that injury has followed.

The preseason has also been bumpy. Tennessee dropped its first exhibition to Xavier after falling apart down the stretch. A Big South opponent at home is a chance to settle the rotation before the Michigan State game on Nov. 17.

Radford wants a track meet

Zach Chu enters his second season, and his first Radford team played fast. The Highlanders ranked 24th nationally in pace last season at 71.7 possessions per 40 minutes, while Tennessee sat 219th. Radford also fired away, ranking 59th in 3-point attempt rate.

The players who drove that style are gone. Dennis Parker Jr. left for Kansas and Del Jones for Seton Hall, and each scored more than 17 a game. Frederik Erichsen is the top returner at 5.6 points per game. The newcomers include shooter Tristan Gross, who hit 43.5% from three at Mercer, Austin Peay point guard Ja'Corey Robinson and Miami transfer Jordyn Kee. Radford was picked 6th in the Big South preseason poll. If Chu keeps the tempo high, the extra possessions give Tennessee's deeper, more talented roster more chances to pull away.

The glass is Barnes country

Some things travel with the coach rather than the roster. Barnes's team led the country in offensive rebound percentage last season, grabbing 44.6% of its own misses. Radford's defense ranked 261st at holding onto rebounds. Rubin averaged 7.1 rebounds and 2.2 blocks at Loyola Chicago, and he gives this rebuilt Tennessee team a clear way to bully a smaller lineup.

The Vols' perimeter defense was another strength last season: opponents shot just 30.5% from three, 24th nationally. Against a Radford team built to shoot threes, that habit matters more than any single rating from last season.