North Florida vs Miami prediction: North Florida needs a barrage of threes to survive Miami's rebounding

Second chances at Watsco

Miami opens its home slate as the AP's No. 14 team. North Florida arrives off a 7-25 season. Both programs rebuilt heavily over the summer. Still, the clearest fault line from last season runs straight through the paint.

North Florida could not finish defensive possessions. The Ospreys grabbed 62.9% of opponents' misses, 362nd of 365 teams. Miami lived on the other end of that stat, rebounding 37.1% of its own misses, which ranked 20th nationally.

The rim was no safer. North Florida blocked shots at the lowest rate in Division I (365th) and let opponents make 57.8% of their twos. Miami made 56.7% of its twos, 37th nationally, and took threes less often than almost anyone.

The twist is that Miami's big men are new. Ernest Udeh Jr. and his 9.1 rebounds a game are gone. In their place come Somto Cyril, who blocked 2.2 shots a game at Georgia, and DeSean Goode, who pulled 8.7 boards a night at Robert Morris. If that pairing settles in quickly, the Hurricanes should get extra possessions all night.

The Ospreys' only exit

North Florida's identity under any coach starts beyond the arc. Last season more than half its shots were threes, a 3-point attempt rate of 51.1% that ranked 9th in the country. That volume is the one lever that can shrink a talent gap.

Miami's perimeter defense gives them a sliver of hope. Opponents made 35.7% of their threes against the Hurricanes last season, 313th nationally. The Ospreys need a night where that weakness shows up.

Kent Jackson carries most of that load. He made 106 threes last season at 34.8%. Wagner transfer Eddie Placer hit 38.1% from deep and should space the floor alongside him.

Two rosters starting over

Neither team looks much like last March's version. North Florida returns 42.9% of last season's minutes, and Miami returns 42.6%. So treat last season's team numbers as a rough guide.

The Ospreys lost their engine. Kamrin Oriol scored 20.9 points a game and has left. Mason Lee is back after posting a 64.6% effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes. He's the likeliest candidate to absorb more shots. The research found no confirmation of who coaches North Florida this season, so expect some stylistic uncertainty.

Miami, in Jai Lucas's second season, layered transfers around a core. Villanova's Acaden Lewis averaged 5.3 assists, and McDonald's All-American freshman Caleb Gaskins joined this fall.

Two availability questions hang over the roster. Malik Reneau, who averaged 18.9 points last season, has a status tied to a court ruling, and no recent update has surfaced. Guard Marcus Allen is expected to miss the season with a torn ACL, though the date of that news is unclear. Check Miami's availability closer to tip.

Tempo, history and the calendar

North Florida likes to run. Its pace of 71.8 possessions per 40 minutes ranked 20th last season, while Miami sat 139th. More possessions usually help the better team, and a fast game gives Miami's rebounding edge more chances to compound.

The recent series has been lopsided. Miami won 105-67 at home last December and 95-55 in the 2023 meeting.

This is Miami's home opener. It comes a week after its Nov. 2 date with Florida in Tampa, and that game will be the first real read on this roster. Picked fourth in the ACC, the Hurricanes carry real expectations into a game they're built to control.