Marshall vs Ohio State prediction: Mobley's ankle hangs over Ohio State's rebuilt backcourt against Marshall

Ankle watch in Columbus

Ohio State's most important returning player is also its biggest question. John Mobley Jr. stepped on a teammate's foot late in the Oct. 25 exhibition win over Butler and went to the locker room. As of Oct. 29 he was listed as questionable for the Nov. 2 opener at No. 25 BYU. Jake Diebler said "we don't anticipate it taking too long," and Mobley called the injury "minor."

The stakes are real. Mobley made 41.1% of his threes last season on 236 attempts, the kind of volume shooting that bends a defense. He scored 15.7 points per game and is on the Jerry West preseason watch list. Justin Pippen also sprained an ankle in preseason; Diebler called it not serious, but nothing newer than early October has surfaced on his status. The BYU and Youngstown State games come first, so both players' availability should be clearer by tip.

Two programs starting over

Neither team looks much like last season's version. Marshall returns just 25.7% of last season's minutes after losing Jalen Speer and Wyatt Fricks, who combined for more than 31 points a night. Ohio State brings back 33.4% and lost Bruce Thornton, whose 139.1 offensive rating made him one of the most efficient guards in the country.

That makes last season's adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) a loose anchor. Ohio State finished 27th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency; Marshall finished 183rd. The Buckeyes rebuilt through the portal, adding Pippen (14.2 points at California), Jimmie Williams (15.0 at Duquesne) and Curtis Givens III from Memphis, plus five-star freshman LJ Smith. Amare Bynum, who scored 23 against Butler, gives them a returning frontcourt piece. Nine newcomers fill the 15-man roster.

Marshall leans on Otshudi, a preseason All-Sun Belt first-teamer who averaged 14.5 points with a 25% usage rate. Southern transfer Fazl Oshodi adds shooting: 34.9% from three on 175 attempts. Sun Belt coaches picked the Herd fifth in a 14-team league, which says the staff believes in the rebuild.

Whose pace wins

Last season these programs played at opposite tempos. Marshall averaged 70.7 possessions per 40 minutes, 48th-most in the country, and leaned on the three. Ohio State played at 65.6, 286th, preferring to grind out half-court possessions where it shot 58.0% inside the arc, 27th nationally.

With so much roster churn, the coaches' preferences are the likeliest carryover. A slower game in Columbus favors the side with more half-court creators, and Ohio State's guard depth fits that description. Marshall's path is speed and volume from deep before the Buckeyes' defense gets set.

The foul line problem

Marshall's defense put opponents on the line constantly last season, allowing a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 40.7%, 320th in Division I. It also ranked 321st in defensive rebounding, giving away second chances. Ohio State made 77.9% of its free throws, 18th nationally.

The personnel has changed, so treat those as tendencies rather than certainties. But if Marshall's defense keeps fouling and giving up the glass, Ohio State's guards get easy points even on nights the jumpers don't fall. Ohio State has its own soft spot: it ranked 355th in steal rate last season and rarely forced mistakes, so Marshall's ball handlers should get clean looks to run their offense.