Howard vs Pennsylvania prediction: Howard's turnover-hunting defense tests TJ Power and Penn at the Palestra

Pressure against poise

Both programs danced last March. Penn won the Ivy League tournament after taking nine of its final 10 games. Howard swept the MEAC regular season and tournament titles. Their first test of the new season comes on Monday, Nov. 9, at the Palestra, and the most likely deciding factor is simple: who wastes the ball.

Last season Howard's defense forced turnovers on 21.2% of opponent possessions, 12th of 365 teams. Its steal rate ranked 40th. That pressure is how Kenny Blakeney's teams travel. Penn gave the ball away on 15.4% of its possessions, a respectable 84th nationally, so the Quakers bring the kind of ball security that can blunt it.

The catch for Howard is that it is just as loose with the ball on its own end. The Bison turned it over on 19.0% of possessions, 317th in the country. In a road opener, that habit can hand back every possession the defense steals.

The whistle and the glass

Howard's offense found its other extra possessions at the free-throw line and on the offensive boards. Its free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) of 44.2% ranked 7th nationally. It also rebounded 36.4% of its own misses, 28th.

Those are the two areas where Penn's defense split. The Quakers rarely fouled, holding opponents to a 27.6% free throw rate, 34th-best. But they cleaned up only 69.1% of opponent misses, 235th. If Howard's guards can't draw whistles, the second-chance points are still there. That matters because Penn plays bigger, at 78.2 inches in minutes-weighted height against Howard's 76.0, so the Bison will have to win those boards with effort rather than size.

Penn lives on the arc

Penn's offense last season was lopsided. The Quakers made 38.4% of their threes, 12th in the nation, but just 47.2% of their twos, 344th. They need jump shots to fall.

Howard has the defense built to take those away. Opponents shot 30.9% from deep against the Bison, 36th-best nationally. TJ Power, the all-league forward who hit 43.2% of his threes last season, gives Penn its best answer. Michael Zanoni adds another shooter, and he made 92% of his free throws, which counts in a tight finish.

Penn's interior defense is the other worry. Opponents made 53.9% of their twos against the Quakers, 295th, which gives Howard's drivers a path even when the perimeter shots aren't there.

Who is back, and what it means

Penn returns four starters and 77.6% of last season's minutes under second-year coach Fran McCaffery. The big loss is guard Ethan Roberts, who scored 16.9 points a game and left for Notre Dame. Penn went the other way to replace him, adding Notre Dame transfer Sir Mohammed.

Howard brings back 64.9% of its minutes, but it lost Bryce Harris and his 17.3 points a game. Cedric Taylor III, who averaged 17.0 points over 24 games with a usage rate of 27.3%, becomes the focal point. Cam Gillus runs the offense. Fresno State transfer Gasper Kocevar adds a body inside.

One caution on Howard's numbers. Its raw net efficiency ranked 48th last season, but once adjusted for opponents its final rating slipped to 200th, below Penn's 161st. The adjusted rating accounts for opponent strength, so the Bison's raw defensive rankings may flatter them against Ivy-level shooting. Penn won the last meeting, 78-68, at the Palestra in December 2023.