Florida A&M vs UAB prediction: UAB's rebuilt backcourt gets an early test from FAMU's hands

A new UAB, built from elsewhere

Almost nobody from last season's UAB team is still around. Players on this season's roster logged just 9.7% of last year's minutes and 6.2% of its points. Kennedy, in his seventh season at his alma mater, added 11 players: six Division I transfers, three junior college transfers and two freshmen.

The priority was shooting. Last season's Blazers made 28.1% of their threes, which ranked 363rd of 365. Justyn Fernandez, who arrives from Delaware, hit 40.3% on 159 attempts there and scored 16.6 points a game. Elijah Duval (Southern Utah) and Deuce Jones (Saint Joseph's) were high-usage scorers at their old schools, so the open question is who defers.

The first look was mixed. UAB led 45-44 at halftime of its Oct. 27 exhibition at Ole Miss before the Rebels pulled away for a 92-78 win. As of Oct. 28, UAB had no injuries reported.

FAMU lives on steals

Florida A&M's identity last season was pressure. The Rattlers forced turnovers on 20.9% of opponent possessions (turnover rate is turnovers per 100 possessions), which ranked 20th nationally. Baker, a returning guard and the league's preseason defensive player of the year, averaged 1.2 steals a game.

The flip side was just as extreme. FAMU coughed it up at a 23.1% rate, 364th in the country. That is the matchup inside the matchup: a UAB backcourt still learning each other's habits against a defense that hunts mistakes, and a FAMU offense that hands possessions back. Jaquan Sanders, who averaged 11.7 points last season, is the steadiest returning handler, and FAMU brings back 28.2% of its minutes overall.

The whistle could tilt it

Ward's team fouled a lot last season. Opponents attempted free throws at a 40.2% rate against FAMU (free throws per field goal attempt), which ranked 312th. That is an opening for UAB's new scorers, especially Fernandez, who made 87.8% of his free throws at Delaware. If the Rattlers gamble for steals and reach in on drives, the Blazers can turn a sloppy night into easy points.

Tempo and how much last season counts

FAMU played slowly last season, at 65.3 possessions per 40 minutes (295th), while UAB sat near the middle at 68.3 (151st). Expect UAB to push for more possessions with its deeper group of guards.

The adjusted efficiency numbers (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) from last season show a wide gap, with UAB 112th in net rating and FAMU 320th. With both rosters this rebuilt, those rankings describe programs more than these teams. FAMU went 15-16 last season and 11-7 in the SWAC under Ward, now in his second year.