Charlotte vs Seton Hall prediction: Seton Hall's turnover machine tests Charlotte's all-new roster at the Palestra

Holloway's defense carries over

Almost nobody from last season's rosters will be on the floor in Philadelphia. Charlotte returns just 9.0% of last season's minutes, and Seton Hall returns 17.9%. When the players change this much, last season's team numbers mostly describe people who have left. The exception is the man on the Seton Hall bench. Shaheen Holloway is in his fifth season, and his defense has a clear signature.

Last season the Pirates finished 14th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, which measures points allowed per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents. They led the country in block rate at 18.7%, and they ranked third in steal rate. Opponents gave the ball away on 22.3% of their possessions, eighth in Division I.

That is the pressure Charlotte's new group walks into. The 49ers ranked 277th in turnover rate last season. That was a different roster under a different coach, but nothing yet suggests ball security will be a strength. Wes Miller took over on March 23 after Cincinnati fired him. His first lineup, in an Oct. 27 exhibition, was five transfers: Finister, Jordi Rodriguez-Stegemeijer, Keyshuan Tillery, Dylan Grant and Michael Walz.

Where the points come from

Seton Hall's problem last season was scoring. The Pirates ranked 340th in effective field goal percentage, a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes. They also barely shot from deep: their 3-point attempt rate ranked 362nd. Holloway went to the portal for shooting. Rodney Brown Jr. made 87 threes at Loyola Marymount last season and hit 38.2% of them. Kareem Thomas shot 44.7% from three at Dartmouth. Del Jones scored 17.2 points per game at Radford, though his shooting efficiency there was modest.

The point guard job is still open. Holloway said about 10 days ago that no leader had emerged, and after the Monmouth exhibition he said he was still trying to figure the team out.

Charlotte's best scorer may be Finister, who averaged 14.9 points per game at Louisiana last season and made 37% of his threes. Arden Conyers is the one notable returner, a 35.8% 3-point shooter last season. Charlotte's guards will have to make shots over a defense that swallows drives at the rim.

What the exhibitions showed

Both teams looked like the rosters they are. Seton Hall survived Monmouth 53-50 on Oct. 24, and Brown won it with a corner three with under seven seconds left. A game that low-scoring fits last season's pattern: strong defense, an offense still searching.

Charlotte's tune-up against North Carolina was more eventful. The 49ers led by as many as 15 in the first half and held a 78-77 lead with 16.9 seconds left in regulation. Then a timeout violation and a technical foul helped North Carolina force overtime, and the Tar Heels won 89-82. The talent to compete with a power-conference team showed up. So did the late-game mistakes a brand-new group tends to make.

Charlotte had reported no injuries or inactives heading into its exhibition, and no availability news had surfaced for either side as of Oct. 30.

A centennial stage in Philadelphia

The game is part of THE BLUEPRINT Philadelphia at the Palestra, a doubleheader with Penn against Howard during the building's centennial season. Seton Hall's schedule lists it as a neutral-site game, and some listings show it as a Seton Hall home game, so expect little true home-court edge for either side.

Tempo will shape any total once a line posts. Both teams played at 64.1 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 339th in the country. Holloway's carryover makes Seton Hall's slow pace the likelier to repeat. Miller's arrival means Charlotte's could change.