Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat prediction: Giannis chases a first Miami home win against a gutted Pacers roster

A home win, finally

Miami traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo to win games in May. Right now it would settle for one in its own building. The Heat are 0-3 at Kaseya Center, and Friday's NBA Cup East Group B opener hands them an Indiana team missing its star, its starting center and its head coach.

Tyrese Haliburton is out with a left hamstring strain and will miss at least two more weeks. T.J. McConnell (hamstring) is out but nearing a return, Ben Sheppard will miss months after knee surgery, and Johnny Furphy is done for the season. Ivica Zubac is listed out with a left ankle sprain, though a couple of Friday listings still carry him as day-to-day, so his status is not fully settled. Andrew Nembhard (neck) and Aaron Nesmith (hamstring) are probable, with one listing calling Nesmith a game-time decision. Rick Carlisle is attending his father's funeral, so Lloyd Pierce will run the bench.

Miami's only question is Simone Fontecchio, whose illness has him listed as questionable or day-to-day depending on the source. Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo and Klay Thompson carry no designation.

Giannis against a thin frontcourt

Antetokounmpo averaged 27.6 points on 62.4% shooting for Milwaukee last season, and he had 24 points and 18 rebounds in Wednesday's win at Atlanta, his first victory in a Heat uniform. Without Zubac, Indiana leans on Jay Huff, a 7-footer who blocked 1.9 shots a game last season but takes most of his shots from outside, plus newcomer Larry Nance Jr.

The interior is where Indiana has actually been good. The Pacers score 55.2 points in the paint per game, 3rd in the league, and make 58.8% of their twos (6th). That runs into a Miami defense allowing just 42.4 paint points a game, 5th fewest. If the Heat hold that line, the Pacers have to win somewhere else.

The open door beyond the arc

That somewhere else is the 3-point line, and Miami's defense has invited it. Heat opponents take 46.3% of their shots from deep, the 3rd-highest share in the league, and make 39.5% of them, 28th of 30.

Indiana has not been ready to cash in. The Pacers shoot 31.2% from three, 23rd in the league. Jarace Walker hit 37.4% on 356 attempts last season, and Nembhard, now the primary ballhandler, made 36.1%. Indiana's assist rate, the share of made baskets that come off a pass, ranks 2nd, so the open looks should come. Whether they fall is the Pacers' path to staying close.

Miami has its own shooting problem at 31.7% (21st), but Tim Hardaway Jr. made 40.7% of his threes for Denver last season and Andrew Wiggins hit 41.4%.

Fouls and fast starts

Free throw rate, free throw attempts per shot attempt, tilts toward Miami. The Heat defense allows a rate of 22.0%, 2nd best, while Indiana's 31.9% ranks 24th. That is a problem against Antetokounmpo, though he made only 65.0% at the line for Milwaukee last season, and Miami shoots 71.7% as a team (27th).

Indiana has also been buried early. The Pacers allow 62.2 first-half points per game, 27th in the league, and trailed Dallas 77-43 at the break in their home loss. Miami put up 69 first-half points in Atlanta on Wednesday.

Where the line went

Our feed first saw Miami at -3.5. Across 11 books it now sits at -8, with the Heat at -305 on the moneyline, a move that tracks the Pacers' injury news. The total has drifted down to 237 from 239.5.

The market is backing a team that has not paid off. Miami is 1-4 against the spread, covering only as an underdog in Atlanta. Indiana is 3-2 and covered as a 7.5-point underdog against Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Heat play fast, 7th in pace, and both teams have gone 2-3 to the over.

Last season's meetings offer little; Indiana won two of three, but both rosters have turned over, and Miami returns just 61.5% of last season's minutes.