New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers prediction: Knicks' cold shooting runs into Philadelphia's stingy defense in Cup rematch
Ten days after the 76ers won at the Garden, New York has to prove its offense can score inside against a defense that has given away almost nothing.
| Spread | New York Knicks -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 225.5 |
- Expect a grinding, half-court game: two struggling offenses, a Philadelphia defense ranked 2nd in efficiency, and points decided by possessions won rather than shots made.
- Jalen Brunson and the Knicks' interior scoring, last in the league on 2-pointers, against a 76ers defense allowing the 2nd-lowest 2-point percentage.
- Our feed first saw a pick'em; the Knicks are now 2-point favorites, and the total slid to 227.5 with both teams 1-4 to the over.
A defense built for this
Philadelphia walked into Madison Square Garden on Oct. 20 as a 4.5-point underdog and left with a 106-100 win. The rematch opens NBA Cup group play in Philadelphia, and the question hasn't changed: can a Knicks offense that ranked 3rd in efficiency last season find itself against one of the league's tightest defenses?
So far the answer has been no. New York scores 106.6 points per 100 possessions, 21st of 30, despite bringing back 86.4% of last season's minutes. The problem lives inside the arc. The Knicks make 2-pointers at a 46.8% clip, dead last in the league.
That is exactly where Philadelphia shuts teams down. The 76ers allow 100.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA, and opponents' 2-point shooting against them also ranks 2nd. The Knicks' ceiling still shows up in flashes: Brunson scored 38 on Wednesday as New York rallied from 19 points down to beat Chicago. They will need that version of him again.
New faces, thin frontcourt
Philadelphia's roster barely resembles last season's. Only 55.8% of last season's minutes return, and the headliners are new. Jaylen Brown averaged 28.7 points for Boston last season, and LeBron James put up 20.9 for the Lakers. Tyrese Maxey remains the engine; he scored 27 in Wednesday's comeback win at Indiana.
Brown is questionable with a knee issue and is a game-time decision. The frontcourt is short-handed. Dominick Barlow is out with a back injury, and Ariel Hukporti is done for the season after Achilles surgery. Jabari Walker and Tacko Fall are listed out on the league report, though at least one Friday listing had both as day-to-day. Joel Embiid, who is managing plantar fasciitis, is not on Friday's report. Adem Bona is the primary option at center whenever Embiid sits. Philadelphia is also reportedly scheduled to play again Saturday.
For New York, Jose Alvarado was ruled out Thursday with an ankle sprain, though one Friday listing still had him day-to-day. Karl-Anthony Towns left Wednesday's game with a wrist injury and came back with it taped. He was not on any Friday report we found. "He was still shooting that thang from 30 feet, so the wrist looked OK to me," Mike Brown said.
Glass against ball security
This is where the game is likely decided. The Knicks grab 30.5% of their own misses, 6th in the league, and rank 2nd on the defensive glass. Philadelphia is last in offensive rebound rate at 18.9% and 24th on the defensive boards. Expect New York to win the second-chance battle, and probably comfortably.
Philadelphia claws those possessions back with care. The 76ers have the league's lowest turnover rate, 12.6 per 100 possessions. The Knicks do little to disrupt that: they rank 28th in forcing turnovers. In a game between two inefficient offenses, extra shots on one side and fewer giveaways on the other could cancel each other out.
The market and the unders
Our feed first had this game at pick'em. The line has since moved to Knicks by 2, with New York at -128 on the moneyline despite a 2-3 start. New York has covered just once in five tries.
The total dropped from 229.5 to 227.5, and the shooting explains why. Philadelphia's effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) ranks 29th, and New York's ranks 25th. Both teams have gone under in four of five games, including the Oct. 20 meeting. The one push against that trend is tempo: Philadelphia plays at the 6th-fastest pace, while the Knicks prefer to slow things down.
New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers line movement and odds
| Book | Knicks ML | 76ers ML | Knicks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -155 | +125 | -2.5 (-115) | o224.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -155 | +128 | -3.5 (-105) | o224.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | -155 | +130 | -3.5 (-105) | o224.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | -150 | +130 | -2.5 (-115) | o223.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | -150 | +125 | -3 (-110) | o224.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | -148 | +126 | -3.5 (-104) | o224.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -155 | +130 | -3.5 (-105) | o224.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -160 | +135 | -3.5 (+100) | o224.5 (-110) |
Key players
- Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks): Averaged 26.0 points last season and scored 38 in Wednesday's comeback win at Chicago.
- Karl-Anthony Towns (New York Knicks): Put up 20.1 points and 11.9 rebounds last season and returned Wednesday with a taped left wrist.
- OG Anunoby (New York Knicks): Shot 38.6% from three last season, a needed outside threat against a defense that walls off the paint.
- Tyrese Maxey (Philadelphia 76ers): Averaged 28.3 points last season and scored 27 in Wednesday's win at Indiana.
- Jaylen Brown (Philadelphia 76ers): Averaged 28.7 points for Boston last season and is questionable Friday with a knee issue.
- LeBron James (Philadelphia 76ers): Averaged 20.9 points and 7.2 assists for the Lakers last season.
- Anfernee Simons (Philadelphia 76ers): Shot 38.5% from three for Boston last season, valuable spacing for a team that ranks 29th in effective field goal percentage.
Numbers that matter
| 76ers defensive efficiency | 100.6 | Points allowed per 100 possessions, 2nd of 30, the wall New York has to solve. |
|---|---|---|
| Knicks 2-point % | 46.8% | Last in the league, and Philadelphia ranks 2nd in opponents' 2-point percentage. |
| 76ers offensive rebound % | 18.9% | Last in the league against a Knicks team that ranks 2nd on the defensive glass. |
| 76ers turnover rate | 12.6% | Best in the league, which offsets some of New York's rebounding edge. |
| Spread | -2 | Knicks favored on the road after our feed first saw a pick'em. |
New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers: quick answers
Who is favored in New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers?
New York Knicks is favored by 3.5 points (New York Knicks -3.5).
What is the over/under for New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers?
The total is 225.5 points.
When is New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers?
Friday, October 30, 2026 at 7:40 PM ET.
Has the line moved for New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers?
Yes: New York Knicks opened -1.5 and is now -3.5, and the total moved from 230.5 to 224.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).