Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics prediction: Bulls bring the league's fastest pace and coldest jumpers back to Boston

The same problem, four days later

The last time these teams shared a floor, on Oct. 26, Boston won 134-99 and covered a 14.5-point spread. Friday's NBA Cup group opener asks whether anything has changed for Chicago, and the early numbers say not much.

The Bulls take threes at the 4th-highest rate in the league, with 46.6% of their shots coming from deep. They make just 27.6% of them, 30th of 30. That drags their effective field goal percentage, which counts a three as 1.5 shots made, to 48.6%, also last in the league.

Boston will let them shoot. The Celtics allow the highest share of opponent threes in the NBA (50.1%, 1st), betting that volume shooters will miss. Against Chicago, that bet has paid. At the other end, Boston hits 38.6% from three (5th), and the Bulls allow opponents 40.6% (29th). The shooting gap is the game's widest seam.

A thin frontcourt against a wall

Chicago's interior is in rough shape. Nic Claxton, acquired over the summer, remains out with a hamstring injury; he was doing individual drills and hoping to rejoin practice next week. Jalen Smith, who has started every game at center, landed on the report Thursday with a left finger sprain and is questionable. Rookie Tobe Awaka (left ankle) is also questionable and could test it in shootaround and warmups. Patrick Williams is questionable with a groin issue and has yet to make his season debut.

No updates had surfaced on any of them as of Thursday evening. If Smith sits, Zach Collins, who has played 26 minutes across three games, and Leonard Miller could absorb the center minutes.

That matters because Boston allows just 37.5 paint points per game, 1st in the NBA. Chicago's best counterpunch is the foul line: its free throw rate (free throws attempted per shot) of 37.3% ranks 2nd. Boston's defense sits 18th at sending opponents there, so the stripe is where the Bulls can steal points without making jumpers.

Two rebuilt rosters

Both teams look different from last season. Boston traded Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia for Paul George, who averaged 17.3 points and shot 39.2% from three for the 76ers last season. Jayson Tatum is back in the projected starting lineup and hit the buzzer-beater that beat Brooklyn 125-124 in overtime on Tuesday. Mitchell Robinson, who averaged 8.8 rebounds for the Knicks last season, anchors the paint, with Neemias Queta behind him. Devin Carter is out with mononucleosis and no timetable.

Chicago returns only 57.2% of last season's minutes, so its 31-51 finish says little. Norman Powell averaged 21.7 points for Miami last season. No. 4 pick Caleb Wilson is among the rookies averaging at least 20 points. Josh Giddey, who averaged 9.1 assists last season, runs the offense, and Matas Buzelis is the returning starter on the wing.

Extra possessions for Boston

Boston forces turnovers on 18.2% of opponent possessions, 4th in the league. Chicago gives the ball away at a 16.3% rate, 19th, and with a fast, frantic offense the giveaways turn into easy points the other way.

The Bulls' one opening is the offensive glass. Boston ranks 25th in defensive rebound percentage, and Chicago grabs 27.2% of its own misses. That edge shrinks fast if Smith and Awaka can't go.

What the market is pricing

Boston is favored by 15.5, the same number our feed first recorded. The total has moved, from 230.5 to 235. Chicago plays at the league's fastest pace, 110.6 possessions per game, and gives up 130.2 points per game, 30th of 30. Yet the Oct. 26 meeting stayed under a 233.5 total, because the Bulls couldn't hold up their end.

Chicago has won just two of its last 12 against Boston. The Celtics are 3-0 at home and have won three straight; the Bulls have lost three in a row.

• Smith's status at warmups: his absence thins an already short rotation.
• Chicago's free throw attempts: the cleanest path to keeping it within the number.
• Early Bulls threes: a cold first quarter is how the last meeting got away.