Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns prediction: Jokic gets a crack at the NBA's worst defensive glass

Jokic against an empty glass

The Suns have one problem that matters more than the rest against Denver. They grab just 63.8% of available defensive rebounds, last of 30 teams. That stat measures how often a defense ends an opponent's possession by securing the miss, and Phoenix is giving away second chances at a rate no one else in the league is.

The bodies to fix it are scarce. Mark Williams is out after surgery on a torn labrum in his left shoulder. Oso Ighodaro has missed two games with an oblique strain and was upgraded to questionable on Friday. Khaman Maluach has started all three games. Coach Jordan Ott said his team needs "48 minutes of great center play," and that is a tall ask with Jokic on the other side.

Jokic averaged 27.7 points and 12.9 rebounds last season, and he logged his 200th career triple-double in Wednesday's win over New Orleans. Denver's own offensive rebound rate sits 18th this season, so the edge is less about the Nuggets' habits than about what Phoenix allows.

Phoenix can't guard the arc

The Suns' defense ranks 30th in efficiency at 121.3 points allowed per 100 possessions. The three-point line is the main leak in that number: opponents are hitting 40.7% from deep, also 30th.

Denver has not been a high-volume three-point team this season, ranking 23rd in the share of shots it takes from deep, and it is making 32.8% of them. Jamal Murray is the player most likely to change that. He shot 43.5% from three on 563 attempts last season.

Cameron Johnson would add another option. He shot 43.0% from deep for Denver last season, but he has missed three games with a right ankle sprain and was listed as questionable as of Oct. 29. Spencer Jones (hamstring) is out. Alpha Diallo is questionable for personal reasons.

Booker and the slow starts

Phoenix has dug itself first-half holes. The Suns score 49.7 points per first half, last in the league, and allow 64.3, which ranks 29th. They trailed Portland 39-72 at the break in the opener.

Devin Booker is central to any turnaround. Ott is experimenting with him as the primary playmaker beside Jalen Green, Collin Gillespie and Jordan Goodwin. Booker managed three points on 1-for-7 shooting in Monday's loss at Oklahoma City, while Green scored 20 and Dillon Brooks 19. Booker averaged 26.1 points last season, and Phoenix has had four days off to sort out the backcourt.

A Nuggets team still finding itself

Denver led the league in offensive efficiency last season at 119.6 points per 100 possessions. This season it is 18th at 107.8. The roster explains part of the drop: only 61.1% of last season's minutes are back.

Peyton Watson, who averaged 14.6 points, is now in Cleveland, and Tim Hardaway Jr. left for Miami. DeMar DeRozan, who averaged 18.4 points for Sacramento last season, has given the bench a lift. Rookie Trevon Brazile made his first start Wednesday and would likely see a bigger role if Johnson sits.

What the market says

Denver is a 4-point favorite. Our feed first saw the Suns at +4.5, so the spread has moved slightly toward Phoenix. The total has climbed to 231.5 from 228.5.

Neither team has rewarded backers. Phoenix is 0-3 against the spread and Denver 1-3, with the Nuggets failing to cover as favorites against New Orleans and Golden State. Denver swept the three meetings last season, though the last one in Phoenix was a 125-123 finish on March 24. This is the NBA Cup group-play opener for both teams.

• Whether Ighodaro plays and how many minutes Phoenix can get from its centers
• Johnson's status and Denver's three-point volume
• Phoenix's first-half margin, its weakest stretch so far