Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors prediction: Raptors' turnover machine gets a second crack at a short-handed Magic

A rematch with stars missing

Two days after Toronto ran Orlando out of Scotiabank Arena 129-99, the same teams play again in the same building, this time with NBA Cup group-play stakes attached. Both headline forwards will watch. Kawhi Leonard, who sat out Wednesday, is out with left knee inflammation and expected to miss at least three to four weeks. Paolo Banchero is sidelined with a right high ankle sprain that carries a four-to-six-week timeline.

That strips the game down to its bones, and the bones favor Toronto. The question is whether Orlando can get the ball across half court and into a shot without giving it away.

Turnovers decide this one

Toronto's defense has been the story of the young season. The Raptors force turnovers on 21.8% of opponent possessions, best in the league, and they also lead the NBA in steal rate. Those takeaways become layups: no team scores more in transition than Toronto's 23.0 fast-break points per game.

Orlando is the worst possible customer. The Magic turn it over on 16.9% of their possessions, 28th of 30. Their offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) is 100.7, dead last, while Toronto allows just 95.0 per 100, the league's best mark.

With Jalen Suggs out with a right knee bone bruise, Black takes over the point. He averaged 15.0 points for Orlando last season. He was questionable for personal reasons before Wednesday's game, was cleared, and doesn't appear on Friday's injury listings. His decisions against Toronto's ball pressure are the matchup to watch.

Orlando's threes into a wall

The Magic have leaned on the three: 46.3% of their shots come from deep, 5th-most in the league. They're making only 31.4% of them. Toronto's defense holds opponents to 29.5% from three, 3rd-best.

Toronto isn't a great shooting team either, but it chased volume Wednesday. The Raptors set a preseason goal of 35 threes a game and hit that number against Orlando, making 15. Scottie Barnes did the rest, scoring 28 and capping a 12-3 run before halftime with a 360-degree dunk.

Where Orlando can claw back points

The Magic's best path runs through the free throw line. Toronto's aggressive defense has a cost: its opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per shot attempt) is 42.4%, 30th of 30. Orlando gets there plenty, ranking 6th at 32.0%.

The Magic also have scorers who carried them Wednesday. Tristan da Silva scored 20 and Franz Wagner added 15 in the loss. Desmond Bane averaged 20.1 points for Orlando last season, and newcomer Nikola Vucevic averaged 15.1 for the Bulls. Orlando's bench is thin, though: Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda and Izaiyah Nelson are all out.

On Toronto's side, Nate Bittle (foot) is listed out with an estimated return of Nov. 2, though one Friday listing had him day-to-day, so his status is unsettled. The Raptors return just 66.3% of last season's minutes after the Leonard trade sent Brandon Ingram to the Clippers, so last season's team numbers say little about this group.

Where the line has moved

Toronto is a 5.5-point favorite, up from -4.5 when our feed first saw the game. That's the same closing number the Raptors covered with room to spare Wednesday. Toronto is 3-1 against the spread; Orlando is 1-3.

The total has moved more, from 222.5 to 226.5. That cuts against Toronto's profile: Raptors games went under in three of four this season, and in 41 of 65 last season. The pace pushes the other way, with both teams among the top 10 in possessions per game.

Last season's series offers a warning for Orlando backers: Toronto won 139-87 in Toronto in March.