Detroit Pistons vs Brooklyn Nets prediction: Without Duren, Detroit's paint wall still towers over winless Brooklyn

The paint stays closed

Brooklyn is 0-4 and trying to avoid the fifth 0-5 start in franchise history. Detroit arrives 4-1, first in the East, and without its starting center. The question in this NBA Cup group opener is whether the Pistons' interior defense holds without Jalen Duren, because the Nets have almost nowhere else to score.

Duren is out with a right hamstring strain and is expected to miss at least two more weeks; Wednesday was the third straight game he sat. Paul Reed, John Collins and Tolu Smith are the likely frontcourt options. Even so, Detroit holds opponents to 48.8% on two-pointers, best in the league, and blocks 14.9% of opponent two-point tries, also 1st. Those numbers include games Duren played, so the sharper test is now.

Brooklyn is the wrong team to run that test. The Nets make 48.7% of their twos, 29th of 30, and score just 40.0 points in the paint per game, also 29th.

Detroit has learned to shoot

The Pistons won 60 games last season by living in the paint, and they ranked 29th in three-point attempt rate (the share of shots taken from deep). This season they sit 15th, and they are making 37.9% of their threes, 7th in the league.

That shift lines up with what Brooklyn gives away. The Nets allow the 2nd-highest opponent three-point attempt rate and rank 24th in opponent three-point percentage. Their opponents post a 58.1% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark where threes count 1.5 times), 28th.

Detroit's shooters give it options: Duncan Robinson hit 41.0% from deep last season, and newcomer Collins made 40.6% for the Clippers. Isaiah Joe, who shot 42.3% for Oklahoma City last season, is questionable with a right hip bruise after missing Wednesday's win.

A pace tug-of-war

Brooklyn plays fast, averaging 108.1 possessions per game, 3rd-most in the NBA. Detroit sits 29th at 100.2. Whoever sets the tempo shapes the total.

The Pistons have been playing slow lately. They scored 97 in both of their last two games, a 14-point loss in New York and Wednesday's 97-89 win over Charlotte, which finished a back-to-back. Both went under. Cade Cunningham carried that Charlotte game with 30 points, his first 30-point night of the season.

The market has leaned that way too: the total dropped from 227.5 when our feed first saw it to 222.5 now, even though three of Brooklyn's four games have gone over.

Why Brooklyn keeps covering

The Nets lose, but not always by much. They covered at Cleveland as 11.5-point underdogs in a four-point loss, then lost to Boston by one on a Jayson Tatum game-winner as 13.5-point dogs. In between came a 136-109 home loss to Indiana.

The scoring runs through two forwards. Michael Porter Jr. averaged 24.2 points for Brooklyn last season, and newcomer Julius Randle averaged 21.1 for Minnesota. The backcourt is thin: Egor Demin is out with a right leg bone bruise and will be reevaluated in a week, rookie Mikel Brown Jr. remains on a minutes limit, and Tyler Bilodeau was ruled out with a shoulder sprain on Oct. 25, with his return date still unsettled.

History favors Detroit, which won three of four meetings last season, including a 130-77 rout. Brooklyn's lone win was a 107-105 game in Detroit.

What to watch

• Whether Reed and Collins keep Randle out of the lane without Duren behind them.
• Joe's status, and how many open threes Detroit's shooters find.
• Who controls the tempo: a Brooklyn track meet or another Pistons game in the 90s.