Charlotte Hornets vs Washington Wizards prediction: Hornets chase second chances against Wizards' thin glass in Cup rematch

The misses are the offense

Four days after Brandon Miller scored a career-high 39 on them, the Wizards get the Hornets again, this time in Washington with NBA Cup group play attached. Charlotte has won the last five meetings. It also arrives with one of the league's worst offenses and a pile of hamstring and calf questions.

The Hornets cannot shoot right now. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, is 49.4%, 28th in the league. They make 30.6% from deep and keep firing anyway: threes are 49.7% of their attempts, second-most in the NBA.

What keeps Charlotte afloat is the follow-up. The Hornets grab 32.9% of their own misses, 2nd in the league. Washington is the worst place to try to stop that. The Wizards rebound only 67.2% of opponent misses, 29th of 30. The gap holds at the other end, too. Charlotte's defensive rebound rate ranks 3rd, and Washington's offensive rebound rate ranks 28th. If the Hornets miss as often as usual, long rebounds and putbacks could decide a game the market expects to be close.

Washington lives at the rim

The Wizards play the opposite style. They score 57.2 points in the paint per game, 2nd in the league, and make 59.5% of their twos, 4th. Anthony Davis led them with 29 in Monday's loss in Charlotte. Deandre Ayton gives them a second big who shot 67.1% for the Lakers last season.

Washington rarely shoots from outside, and for good reason: it hits 28.5% from three, 29th. The Wizards' defense, though, holds opponents to 30.8% from deep, 6th. That is bad news for a Charlotte team that takes half its shots from out there. The Hornets allow 46.8 paint points per game, 10th, so the inside battle is a fair fight.

Availability clouds the home side as well. Tre Johnson (Achilles soreness) is questionable. Rookie AJ Dybantsa, the No. 1 pick, missed Monday's game with a left ankle sprain. He was at shootaround Wednesday while still listed questionable. Friday's reports no longer list him, but he has not been explicitly cleared, and this would be his regular-season debut. Trae Young is still working back to full capacity. Tristan Vukcevic, Jamir Watkins and Justin Champagnie are out.

Charlotte's shrinking rotation

This is not last season's Hornets. Charlotte traded LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges, and its players return only 60.8% of last season's minutes. The offense ranked 7th in efficiency last season, at 115.7 points per 100 possessions. It now ranks 29th at 101.2.

Injuries have made it worse. Kon Knueppel (hamstring) practiced with the G League affiliate Thursday. The league report from Oct. 29 had him out, while other Friday listings call him day-to-day, so his status is unsettled. The same split applies to Coby White (calf) and Grant Williams (hamstring): the league report lists both as out, and Lee planned to reassess them after this two-game road trip. Dennis Schroder (foot) is questionable and Kylan Boswell is out.

The frontcourt has its own problem. Naz Reid sat the entire second half in Detroit. Lee said Reid "didn't meet our standards in the first half." How Lee splits center minutes between Reid and Moussa Diabate shapes the rebounding fight.

The market moved to Washington

The market moved toward Washington, but not far enough to change the favorite. Our feed first saw Washington as a 1.5-point home favorite. The line has moved from Washington -1.5 to Charlotte -1, so the Hornets are now favored by 1 on the road, with the moneyline at -115. The total dropped from 223.5 to 219.5.

The under has been Charlotte's constant. The Hornets are 0-5 to the under this season, and Washington has gone under in four of five. Charlotte plays at the slowest pace in the league, 30th of 30, and Monday's meeting finished 110-103 under a 225.5 total. Against the spread, the Hornets are 3-2 after going 42-23 last season.