NBA Division underdogs: Miami Heat: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Getting points against a division rival. 99 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 54-42-3 (56.3%)
Straight up: 41-58 (41.4%)
Over/under: 46-52-1 (46.9% overs)
Average cover margin: 2.17 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 5 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2008-2017: 35-31 (53.0%); 2018-2027: 19-11 (63.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2026 | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| 2025 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2024 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2023 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2022 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2019 | 4-1 | 80.0% |
| 2018 | 3-1-1 | 75.0% |
| 2017 | 8-2 | 80.0% |
| 2016 | 7-3 | 70.0% |
| 2015 | 3-4-1 | 42.9% |
| 2014 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2013 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2012 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2011 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2010 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2009 | 5-8 | 38.5% |
| 2008 | 5-6-1 | 45.5% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA division underdogs for the Miami Heat?
54-42-3 against the spread (56.3%) in 99 team-games since 2007-08, 41-58 straight up and 46-52-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 5 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 35-31 (53.0%); 2018-2027: 19-11 (63.3%).