Tampa Bay Lightning vs Nashville Predators prediction: Lightning shot surge tests Saros and Nashville's elite special teams

Shots favor Tampa Bay

The Lightning have built their 8-3-1 start by tilting the ice. Their shot share (their portion of all shots in their games) sits at 55.6%, 3rd of 32 teams. Nashville is on the other end at 46.8%, 27th. Expect Tampa Bay to spend long stretches in the Predators' zone.

The catch is what happens at the other end. Tampa Bay's team save percentage is 86.9%, 28th in the league, and Andrei Vasilevskiy, the probable starter, carries a .876 mark with a 2.91 goals-against average. Twelve games is a small sample, but the Lightning have been winning in spite of their net, not because of it. Juuse Saros, expected to start for Nashville, sits at .902 and faced the heavier workload. He gave up four goals on 29 shots in Thursday's loss to Washington.

Nashville's special teams equalizer

This is where the Predators can flip the script. Their power play (power-play goals per opportunity) is converting at 31.8%, 4th in the league, and their penalty kill stops 88.1% of chances, also 4th. Tampa Bay's power play has misfired at 16.3%, 27th.

Discipline sharpens the edge. Nashville ranks 3rd in fewest penalty minutes per game, while Tampa Bay is 7th. The Lightning do draw plenty of calls, 3.58 power plays per game (3rd), but a weak conversion rate against a top-four kill blunts that. If this game turns on the man advantage, Nashville holds the better hand.

Stamkos faces his old team

Steven Stamkos, the former Lightning captain who signed with Nashville in free agency, gets Tampa Bay again. He has 7 goals and 15 points, finishing on 25.9% of his shots. Filip Forsberg, who scored twice Thursday, also has 15 points, and Roman Josi has driven the offense from the blue line with 14 assists.

Tampa Bay's forwards carry more punch. Brandon Hagel leads the team with 16 points and has fired 55 shots. He had a goal and two assists in Wednesday's 6-4 win over Winnipeg and is projected on the second line alongside Anthony Cirelli. Nikita Kucherov has 11 assists on a projected top line with Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point.

Lineup news

Victor Hedman is back on Tampa Bay's projected top pair after missing time with a lower-body injury. Yanni Gourde remains on injured reserve after hip surgery, with a December 2 estimated return. Zemgus Girgensons' status is unsettled: one listing has him out, another day-to-day with a lower-body injury.

For Nashville, defenseman Trudeau is out with an upper-body injury. Bourque appears on the projected second line, though an earlier report said he would miss Saturday, so treat his availability as unconfirmed until warmups. Neither team has confirmed its goalie.

What the market says

Tampa Bay is a -170 favorite with Nashville at +141, a gap that leans on the shot numbers and the Lightning's sweep of both meetings last season. Road form tempers that: Tampa Bay is 6-0-0 at home but 2-3-1 away. Nashville's 4-4-5 record includes plenty of one-goal losses, and the Predators are 8-5 against the puck line.

The total opened in our feed at 6.5 and now sits at 6. That move points to goaltending holding up, which neither team has done consistently.

• Whether Vasilevskiy and Saros both take warmups as starters
• Tampa Bay's penalty count against Nashville's power play
• Stamkos' finishing touch against his old club