Buffalo Sabres vs Los Angeles Kings prediction: Two broken penalty kills, one Halloween matinee: Sabres and Kings brace for chaos

Nobody can kill a penalty

The Sabres close a four-game road trip Saturday afternoon riding a comeback, and the Kings come home after nearly giving away a four-goal third-period lead. Both teams can score their way out of trouble. Neither has shown it can keep the puck out of its own net.

The clearest crack is the penalty kill, the share of opponent power plays a team survives without allowing a goal. Los Angeles kills just 64.9%, 31st of 32. Buffalo is barely better at 67.4%, 28th. Those numbers turn every minor penalty into a real scoring chance.

The Sabres should get their looks. They draw 3.38 power plays per game, 9th in the league, and the Kings go shorthanded 3.08 times a night. Buffalo's own power play (power-play goals per opportunity) is the catch: it converts only 13.6%, 28th. The Kings' unit is ordinary at 17.5%, but Buffalo hands out chances, going shorthanded 3.54 times per game, 27th. Discipline may matter more than skill here.

A shaky crease on both ends

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is expected to start for Buffalo after working in the starter's net at Friday's practice. He hasn't been sharp: an 86.6% save percentage and a 3.56 goals-against average through nine games. Colten Ellis, who started Thursday in Anaheim, has been slightly better at 88.0%.

Darcy Kuemper is the projected starter for Los Angeles after a maintenance day Friday. His 87.8% save percentage and 3.65 GAA are no improvement. Backup Anton Forsberg has stopped 90.2% in five games, the best mark of any goalie in this game, but he isn't projected to play.

The team numbers tell the same story. Buffalo's team save percentage ranks 29th and LA's 27th. Thirteen games is a small sample for goaltending, but neither side has given bettors a reason to trust its netminder yet.

Thompson, Panarin and the first period

Tage Thompson arrives hot. His hat trick keyed a run of six straight goals as Buffalo erased a 3-1 deficit and outlasted Anaheim 7-6. He leads the Sabres with 8 goals and 15 points, and Jack Quinn adds 7 goals on an 18.4% shooting rate.

Artemi Panarin carries the Kings with 8 goals and 13 points, finishing 20.5% of his shots. The rest of the attack lags: LA ranks 24th in goals per game. Adrian Kempe has put 41 shots on goal but converts only 7.3%, so he's due for some puck luck.

Watch the opening 20 minutes. Buffalo allows 1.46 first-period goals per game, last in the league, while the Kings score 1.08 in the first, 9th. An early LA lead would let a home team that's 1-3-0 at Crypto.com Arena play from in front.

Who's in and who's out

The Kings are thin up front. Kevin Fiala and Mats Zuccarello are on injured reserve and listed week-to-week. Brandt Clarke left Thursday's game after a boarding hit but practiced Friday, is day-to-day, and is projected on the second pairing with Gustafsson. He has 9 points from the blue line, so his availability matters.

Buffalo is missing Konsta Helenius, Jiri Kulich and Justin Danforth, but Sam Carrick returned from injured reserve and is projected to center the fourth line. Noah Ostlund skipped Friday's practice for maintenance and is expected to play.

What the market says

Buffalo is the favorite at -122, with the Kings at +104 across 11 books. The total sits at 5.5 and hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it.

The trends split. Sabres games have gone over 8 times in 13, while the Kings are 7-5 to the under. Both teams have covered the puck line more often than not, with LA 7-5. Buffalo also beat the Kings twice last season, both by 4-1 scores.

• Watch the penalty count early.
• Confirm both goalies in warmups.
• Check whether Clarke takes his regular shift.