St Louis Blues vs Detroit Red Wings prediction: Hofer vs. Gibson: the goalie gap behind the Blues as road favorites
Detroit outshoots its opponents and keeps games close, but a .874 starter and the league's 29th-ranked penalty kill hand St. Louis the edge the market sees.
| Line | St. Louis Blues -108 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 5.5 |
- Detroit should carry the play and the shot count, while St. Louis leans on Joel Hofer and a power play that can cash in on Red Wings penalties.
- The Blues' 25.7% power play, 8th in the league, against a Detroit penalty kill stopping just 66.7%, 29th of 32.
- St. Louis is a -118 road favorite with the total at 5.5, unchanged since first seen. Gibson's .874 save percentage bears on it most.
The crease tilts toward St. Louis
Coach Todd McLellan said Friday that John Gibson will be in net for Detroit, and that is the central fact of this game. Gibson has stopped .874 of the shots he has faced this season, with a 3.15 goals-against average. That number has to rise for Detroit's strong shot share to turn into wins.
The Blues haven't named a starter. Joel Hofer is the probable one after making 31 saves in Thursday's 4-1 win over Boston, and his season line is .923 with a 2.24 goals-against average. The gap matters because Jordan Binnington has sat at .845 in his four appearances. If St. Louis turns to him, the tilt in net shrinks or disappears. Nine starts is a small sample for any goalie, but right now these are the two numbers moving this line.
Detroit's penalty problem
The Red Wings' penalty kill is the weakest part of their game. It is stopping 66.7% of opponents' power plays, 29th in the league. St. Louis brings a power play converting 25.7% of its chances, 8th of 32. Jimmy Snuggerud's power-play goal Thursday also ended a team scoreless drought of more than 138 minutes, so the unit arrives with a little momentum.
The catch is volume. The Blues draw only 2.69 power plays per game, 29th. They are also disciplined, going shorthanded just 2.62 times per game, the fourth-lowest rate. Detroit draws 3.54 power plays per game, 4th, so the Red Wings could win the penalty count even if St. Louis wins the special-teams scoreboard.
All the shots, few of the goals
Detroit drives play. Its shot share, meaning its share of all shots in its games, is 54.3%, 8th in the league, and St. Louis allows plenty, ranking 22nd in shots allowed. The finishing hasn't followed: Detroit converts 9.0% of its shots, 31st of 32, and starts slowly with the 28th-ranked first-period scoring.
Viktor Arvidsson is the exception. He scored a hat trick against Chicago Thursday and leads the team with 8 goals. Alex DeBrincat tops the Red Wings with 15 points. For St. Louis, Snuggerud's 7 goals on a 24.1% shooting rate look hard to sustain, while Mason McTavish has been the more steady shooter. The Blues did look capable of going cold: before Thursday they were shut out by Carolina and Montreal in back-to-back games.
Who's missing
Detroit is without captain Dylan Larkin, suspended before Thursday's game and listed out until at least Nov. 14. Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton are still about 10 days from returning. Defenseman Albert Johansson is expected to miss more time, and Simon Edvinsson remains away in a contract dispute. Jacob Bernard-Docker was recalled. Even so, Detroit is 5-1-3 in its past nine games and has won two in a row.
For St. Louis, Colton Parayko didn't practice Friday with an upper-body injury but was considered probable as of Friday. Alexey Toropchenko was activated from injured reserve Oct. 27. Torey Krug is on long-term injured reserve, and Dillon Dube remains out with a neck injury.
What the market is saying
St. Louis is a slight road favorite at -118, with Detroit at -102 at home, across 11 books. The puck line and the 5.5 total haven't moved since our feed first recorded the game Friday. Both teams are 7-6 to the over this season.
Detroit won both meetings last season, 6-4 at home and 5-2 in St. Louis. Those games came with different rosters and goalies, so the current matchup in net matters more than the old results.
St Louis Blues vs Detroit Red Wings line movement and odds
| Book | Blues ML | Wings ML | Blues spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -115 | +1.5 (-275) | o5.5 (-125) |
| DraftKings | -102 | -118 | +1.5 (-278) | o5.5 (-120) |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -115 | +1.5 (-325) | o5.5 (-120) |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 | +1.5 (-270) | o5.5 (-120) |
| FanDuel | -104 | -115 | +1.5 (-260) | o5.5 (-118) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -110 | -120 | -1.5 (+210) | o5.5 (-120) |
| Caesars | +100 | -118 | — | o5.5 (-122) |
Key players
- Joel Hofer (St. Louis Blues): Hofer carries a .923 save percentage and 2.24 goals-against average in 9 games this season.
- Jimmy Snuggerud (St. Louis Blues): Snuggerud leads the Blues with 7 goals this season on a 24.1% shooting rate.
- Mason McTavish (St. Louis Blues): McTavish has 6 goals and a team-high 41 shots this season.
- Robert Thomas (St. Louis Blues): Thomas has 9 points this season and had a goal and two assists Thursday against Boston.
- John Gibson (Detroit Red Wings): Gibson owns a .874 save percentage and 3.15 goals-against average in 9 games this season.
- Alex DeBrincat (Detroit Red Wings): DeBrincat leads Detroit with 15 points and a plus-12 rating this season.
- Viktor Arvidsson (Detroit Red Wings): Arvidsson has a team-high 8 goals on 21.6% shooting this season, including Thursday's hat trick.
- Lucas Raymond (Detroit Red Wings): Raymond has 12 points and 40 shots this season while logging 20.5 minutes a night.
Numbers that matter
| Gibson save percentage | .874 | Detroit's starter has struggled, and the home team is the underdog. |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit penalty kill | 66.7% | It ranks 29th of 32 and faces a Blues power play ranked 8th. |
| Detroit shooting % | 9.0% | It ranks 31st, despite a shot share of 54.3% that ranks 8th. |
| Blues moneyline | -118 | St. Louis is a modest road favorite, with the total steady at 5.5. |
St Louis Blues vs Detroit Red Wings: quick answers
What is the over/under for St Louis Blues vs Detroit Red Wings?
The total is 5.5 goals.
When is St Louis Blues vs Detroit Red Wings?
Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 1:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for St Louis Blues vs Detroit Red Wings?
No: St Louis Blues has stayed at +1.5, and the total is still 5.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).