Ottawa Senators vs San Jose Sharks prediction: Ottawa's Samuel Ersson must hold the crease in a San Jose rematch

The crease without Ullmark

Ottawa built its start on Linus Ullmark. He posted a .945 save percentage and a 1.33 goals-against average before a lower-body strain put him on injured reserve. He is not expected back for this one.

That leaves Samuel Ersson, the probable starter, and his numbers tell a different story. He carries an .849 save percentage over six appearances. His goals-against average is 4.47. Jonas Johansson started Thursday's overtime loss in Los Angeles, so Ersson comes in rested. Neither team has confirmed a starter.

Yaroslav Askarov is expected to start for San Jose. His .900 save percentage is ordinary, but the Sharks' team save percentage ranks 9th, while Ottawa's ranks 20th. Fourteen games is a small sample for any goalie, yet the gap between Ottawa's two netminders is too wide to ignore.

Ottawa's penalty box habit

The Senators spend too much time a man down. They are shorthanded 3.71 times per game, 29th in the league, and only one team takes more penalty minutes. Their penalty kill (the share of opponent power plays it survives) sits at 76.9%, 19th.

That is a bad match for San Jose. The Sharks' power play (goals per opportunity) converts at 24.5%, 10th in the league.

The flip side should help Ottawa, and so far it hasn't. The Senators draw 4.21 power plays per game, 2nd in the league, but convert just 13.6%, 29th. San Jose's penalty kill ranks 9th. If special teams decide this game, the Sharks hold the edge on both ends.

Shots against finishing

San Jose lets the puck come at its net. The Sharks allow 30.6 shots per game, 30th in the league. Ottawa doesn't usually take advantage of that volume, ranking 26th with 25.2 shots per game. The Senators score by finishing instead.

Tim Stutzle drives that. He has 19 points, with eight goals on just 26 shots, a conversion rate that is hard to sustain. Drake Batherson adds 16 points.

San Jose answers with Macklin Celebrini, who has 16 points in 12 games and a team-high 50 shots. Will Smith scored twice in Thursday's comeback win over Vancouver, including the tying goal. Don't expect a fast start from either side. Ottawa allows the 4th-fewest first-period goals, and San Jose scores the 4th-fewest.

Ottawa's thinning forward group

"I feel like every game we have somebody going down," Stutzle said earlier this month, and the list has only grown. Hayden Hodgson is suspended after his ejection Thursday in Los Angeles, which left Ottawa with 10 healthy forwards. The Senators recalled Philip Tomasino and Xavier Bourgault from Belleville.

Andre Burakovsky left Thursday's game in the first period and is day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Nothing on his Saturday status has surfaced. Warren Foegele went on injured reserve Friday with a knee injury. William Eklund, acquired from San Jose, is out until January after ankle surgery.

The Sharks have their own absences. Igor Chernyshov and Alexander Wennberg are both on injured reserve with upper-body injuries. Chernyshov was hurt in the teams' October 22 meeting.

What the market says

Nine days ago, San Jose won 6-2 in Ottawa as a +114 underdog. The market has made Ottawa the favorite again, at -135, with the Sharks at +115 and +1.5 on the puck line. Neither the puck line nor the 6.5 total has moved since our feed first recorded it.

The favorite price is hard to square with Ottawa's 5-9 puck-line record and Ersson's form. Ottawa's goal differential ranks 20th and San Jose's ranks 24th, so neither team has separated from the pack.

• Whether Ersson starts, and how he handles early traffic
• How many times Ottawa goes to the box
• Whether Burakovsky dresses for a short-handed forward group