Pittsburgh Penguins vs Montréal Canadiens prediction: Jacob Fowler's .942 stands between Montreal and a fifth straight win

The rookie in the crease

Montreal has won four in a row and goes for a fifth tonight, all of it without captain Nick Suzuki. The biggest reason sits in the crease. Jacob Fowler is expected to start after Jakub Dobes took Thursday's 5-2 win in Dallas, though no coach has confirmed it. Fowler has stopped .942 of the shots he has faced across seven games, with a 1.54 goals-against average.

The gap between Montreal's two goalies is stark. Dobes sits at .853, so a surprise switch would change the read on this game. Pittsburgh's probable starter, Arturs Silovs, has started the last four games and carries an .889 save percentage for the season. The Penguins won't name their goalie until the morning. Seven starts is a small sample, but Fowler is the clearest edge either team brings.

Montreal's power play problem

The Canadiens have a power play that barely works. It converts 10.3% of its chances (power-play goals per opportunity), 31st of 32. It faces a Pittsburgh penalty kill that stops 84.4% of opposing power plays, 8th in the league.

The discipline numbers point the other way. Montreal is shorthanded 4.0 times a game, 30th, while Pittsburgh is shorthanded only 2.46 times, 3rd. If the Penguins win this game, a likely path runs through Karlsson, Malkin and a power play that will probably see more chances than Montreal's.

Fast starts, slow road

Montreal scores 1.15 first-period goals a game, 7th in the league. Pittsburgh allows the same 1.15 in opening periods, 28th. The Canadiens jumped Dallas 3-1 after one on Thursday. The Penguins have trailed after the first in four of their last five games.

Pittsburgh is 1-5-1 away from home. It did beat Montreal 6-5 in overtime on Oct. 3, when Tommy Novak scored twice, including the winner. That game was in Pittsburgh. Thursday's loss to Utah stung too: Ben Kindel put Pittsburgh ahead with 25 seconds left, and Logan Cooley batted in the equalizer before Utah won in overtime.

Who's in, who's out

Suzuki is expected to miss a fifth straight game with an upper-body injury, and his return timeline is unsettled. Mike Matheson missed the Dallas game with what the team called a new lower-body injury. He is listed as day-to-day as of Oct. 30, so his status for tonight is unclear. Ivan Demidov also sat out in Dallas.

Pittsburgh is getting healthier. Kindel and Samuel Girard were activated from injured reserve Thursday, and Evgeni Malkin returned from an illness to post two assists. Bryan Rust remains on injured reserve; on Oct. 22 he was set to be re-evaluated in six weeks.

What the market says

Montreal is -150 on the moneyline, with Pittsburgh at +128. The puck line sits at Canadiens -1.5, and the total is 6.5. Neither number has moved since our feed first saw the game.

Both teams are 8-5 to the over this season. Montreal's win streak broke that pattern, with three of the four wins staying under, and Fowler's form is the reason it might again.

• Confirm Fowler in warmups; Dobes changes the picture.
• Watch Pittsburgh's first period on the road.
• Count Montreal penalties: the Penguins' power play needs volume.