Calgary Flames vs Colorado Avalanche prediction: Avalanche firepower waits for a weary Flames team with goalie questions

A short night in Denver

Calgary beat Seattle 6-2 at home Friday and now plays in Denver on Saturday night, the second half of a back-to-back and the start of a road trip. The Flames have won five of their last six, but they are 1-4-0 away from home this season.

Colorado has had three days of rest and sits 5-1-1 at Ball Arena. The Avalanche also own this matchup lately: they won all four meetings over the last two seasons, including a 7-3 win in Calgary on Oct. 8.

Who stops the puck for Calgary

This is the question that shapes the game. Devin Cooley, Calgary's best goalie this season with a .914 save percentage, is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury from a collision at Edmonton on Oct. 28. That pushed Dustin Wolf back into action Friday, when he made 21 saves in his first start since Oct. 15.

Arsenii Sergeev, recalled from the AHL, is ESPN's probable starter, and that fits the back-to-back. Calgary hasn't confirmed anything, and Wolf remains the alternative. Wolf's season line is rough: an .847 save percentage and a 4.39 goals-against average over seven games. Sergeev has no NHL numbers in our data.

Colorado's probable starter is Mackenzie Blackwood, who moved into the No. 1 role on Oct. 28. He has an .894 save percentage and a 2.81 GAA, solid more than spectacular.

MacKinnon and a red-hot finishing rate

Colorado scores 4.15 goals per game, 2nd of 32, and it has done that by converting. The Avalanche shoot 13.7% (goals per shot), 5th in the league, while Calgary converts 9.1%, 30th.

Nathan MacKinnon centers the top line with 22 points and 52 shots in 13 games. His wings are Artturi Lehkonen and Martin Necas. Lehkonen has 10 goals on just 24 shots, a pace that rarely lasts over a full season, but it has been real so far. Calgary's defense hasn't been a good match for that: the Flames allow 3.62 goals per game, 28th, and give up 1.15 goals in first periods, also 28th.

Colorado will be without defenseman Josh Manson, who is expected to miss about eight weeks with an ankle injury. Noah Juulsen is expected to step into the lineup.

Calgary's best weapon: the power play

The Flames convert 33.3% of their power plays (power-play goals per opportunity), 3rd in the league. Colorado's penalty kill stops 76.9% of opponent power plays, 19th. If Calgary gets chances, it can score.

The catch is volume. The Flames draw only 2.54 power plays per game, 31st, so they rarely get to use that strength. Matt Coronato had a career-best four points Friday and shares the team lead in points with Joel Farabee.

Calgary is also short on bodies. Connor Zary is out after knee surgery. Jonathan Huberdeau and Samuel Honzek are on injured reserve. Brennan Othmann is listed as out on the league report but was called day-to-day as of Friday, so his status is unsettled.

What the market says

Colorado is a -400 favorite, with Calgary at +318. The puck line has Colorado at -1.5 and the total is 6.5, and neither has moved since our feed first saw the game Friday.

The total trend leans toward Colorado's games: the Avalanche have gone over in 9 of 13. Calgary is closer to even at 6-7 on overs. On the puck line, Colorado is 8-5 this season.

• Calgary's confirmed starter at warmups
• Whether the Flames can draw penalties for their power play
• Calgary's first period on tired legs