Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vancouver Canucks prediction: Maple Leafs' scoring punch tests the Canucks' unsettled, struggling crease

Vancouver's crease is the question

The Canucks enter with a 3-11-1 record and have lost 11 of their last 12. The biggest reason sits in the blue paint. Vancouver ranks last in the league in team save percentage at 85.9%, and its two goalies offer very different floors.

Kevin Lankinen is listed as the probable starter, but Leevi Meriläinen started Thursday's loss to San Jose and may get a fourth straight start. The Canucks haven't confirmed either. That uncertainty matters: Meriläinen has a 89.8% save percentage this season, while Lankinen sits at 81.2% with a 6.17 goals-against average. Thatcher Demko remains on injured reserve after hip surgery, with the club hoping he returns before Christmas.

Toronto has made its call. The club announced that Anthony Stolarz starts over Sergei Bobrovsky, whom the GM has publicly backed through a rough stretch. Stolarz has the better numbers of the pair at 90.7% with a 2.79 goals-against average.

A power play built to punish

Special teams tilt sharply toward the visitors. Toronto's power play (goals per opportunity) converts at 31.2%, 5th of 32. Vancouver's penalty kill stops just 65.4% of opponents' chances, 30th in the league.

The other side is just as lopsided. The Leafs kill 92.3% of penalties, 2nd in the NHL. Both teams go shorthanded 3.47 times per game, so discipline won't separate them. Execution will. If this game turns into a parade to the box, Toronto is built to cash in and Vancouver isn't built to answer.

Shots tilt hard toward Toronto

Vancouver ranks last in shot share, a team's share of all shots in its games, at 39.5%. The Canucks also allow the most goals in the league, 4.53 per game. Toronto scores 3.73 per game, 3rd of 32.

The Canucks do have one stubborn strength: they finish what little they generate, shooting 14.2%, 2nd in the league. Elias Pettersson drives that with 16 points, and Jonathan Lekkerimaki leads the team with 6 goals. Toronto's own defense gives them a window, too. The Leafs rank 23rd in goals allowed and gave up a late goal in the 5-4 loss at Seattle to close their road trip.

Auston Matthews leads Toronto with 10 goals and 23 points. In Wednesday's loss at Seattle, Gavin McKenna became the youngest Leaf to post three points in a game since 1944.

Bodies returning, bodies missing

Two former Canucks headline Toronto's returns. Defenseman Chris Tanev, listed day-to-day, practiced fully and skated with Morgan Rielly on Friday. Forward Dakota Joshua came off long-term injured reserve and is expected to play for the first time since April. Both are expected back Saturday.

The Leafs remain without John Tavares and Kirill Marchenko, who is week-to-week with a lower-body injury and leaves behind 14 points. Vancouver ruled out Filip Chytil, who re-aggravated an upper-body injury, and recalled Jacob Quillan, who could debut against his former team. Both benches are in their first season, with Malhotra's Toronto and Hiller's Vancouver still finding their footing.

What the market says

Toronto is a -166 favorite, with Vancouver at +140 and the puck line at 1.5. The total sits at 6.5, the same number our feed first recorded. Leafs games have gone over 10 times in 15, while Canucks games split 7-8. Both teams are 7-8 on the puck line. Toronto won both meetings last season, 5-0 at home and 3-2 in Vancouver.