Columbus Blue Jackets vs Dallas Stars prediction: Columbus brings a quiet attack into Dallas's stingiest-in-the-NHL defense

A wall in Dallas

Dallas has built its season on denial. The Stars allow 2.23 goals per game, best in the NHL, and a league-low 22.1 shots per game. Their shot share, the portion of all shots in their games that belong to them, ranks 7th.

Columbus is poorly built to crack that. The Blue Jackets score 2.45 goals per game, 29th of 32, and they are 1-3-0 on the road.

The wrinkle is recent form. New Jersey beat Dallas 5-1 and Montreal won 5-2, both at American Airlines Center, ending a five-game winning streak. Saturday closes a six-game homestand. Columbus also owns this matchup lately, winning 5-1 in Dallas in October 2025 and 1-0 at home last January.

Oettinger holds the edge

Jake Oettinger is the probable starter for Dallas, though the team hasn't confirmed it. His .917 save percentage and 1.69 goals-against average anchor that defensive profile.

Columbus has not settled its crease. Jet Greaves is listed as the probable starter, but the Blue Jackets have split the work between him and Cam Talbot, and the call may not be clear until the morning skate. Greaves sits at .884 with a 3.29 goals-against average. Talbot has been a bit better at .894. Either way, the gap in net is the clearest reason Dallas is favored.

Special teams lean Dallas

The penalty kill is Dallas's sharpest weapon. The Stars kill 93.5% of opponents' power plays, best in the league. Columbus's power play, which measures goals per opportunity, converts 13.3% of its chances, 30th.

Discipline is the Stars' soft spot. Dallas is shorthanded 3.54 times per game, 27th in the league, and it draws fewer power plays than any team. That hands Columbus more chances than it usually earns, though its unit has done little with them. Columbus's own kill ranks 22nd.

Early goals and the finishers

Columbus has been at its best early. The Blue Jackets score 1.18 first-period goals per game, 6th in the league. Dallas manages just 0.54 in the opening 20 minutes, 30th. If Columbus wants to steal another one in Dallas, the first period is where it builds a lead to protect.

Kent Johnson is the finisher to watch. His seventh goal Thursday at Carolina tied his total from all of last season, and his 29.2% shooting rate is hard to sustain. Zach Werenski runs the back end with 9 assists but no goals yet. Dallas counters with Mikko Rantanen's 16 points, and Jason Robertson leads the Stars' listed skaters with 43 shots.

Reinforcements and the market

Stars coach Glen Gulutzan said Dallas will get reinforcements Saturday, with at least one of three returning players in the lineup and possibly two. Radek Faksa is listed as probable for Saturday. Esa Lindell is also listed as probable, but reports on him conflict, so his status is unsettled. Matt Duchene remains out after core surgery, and defenseman Kyle Capobianco is expected to miss about four weeks. For Columbus, defenseman Dante Fabbro came off injured reserve Oct. 27, while Ivan Provorov's availability for Saturday is unclear.

The market sides with Dallas at -185, with Columbus at +155. The puck line and total have held steady since our first look. Dallas's defense has kept its totals low, though its wins over the Islanders and losses to the Devils and Canadiens all went over.