Edmonton Oilers vs New York Islanders prediction: McDavid's power play against the Islanders' penalty box problem
Edmonton converts more than a third of its power plays, and New York's strong penalty kill keeps getting sent out because the Islanders take too many penalties.
| Line | Edmonton Oilers -110 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6 |
- Edmonton's finishing should drive the scoring. New York needs Sorokin sharp and fewer trips to the box to keep it close at home.
- Watch the Oilers' league-best 35.7% power play against an Islanders penalty kill that ranks 5th but works overtime.
- Edmonton is -132 and the total sits at 6.5, unchanged since our feed first saw it. Oilers games are 8-5 to the over.
The penalty box decides it
The cleanest edge in this game belongs to Edmonton with the man advantage. The Oilers' power play (power-play goals per opportunity) is converting at 35.7%, 1st in the league. That is a unit built around Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard, and it punishes every minor.
That makes New York's discipline the hinge. The Islanders are shorthanded 3.38 times per game, 22nd of 32. Their penalty kill has been excellent at 86.4%, 5th in the league, but asking it to survive this power play four or five times is a lot.
The flip side favors New York if it can draw calls. The Islanders' power play runs at only 17.5%. Edmonton's kill sits at 71.4%, among the league's weaker units, so even an ordinary Islanders power play has openings.
Jarry against Sorokin
Mike Babcock has confirmed Tristan Jarry will start for Edmonton. He shut out Calgary on Wednesday, but his season save percentage of .890 is ordinary. Devon Levi remains on injured reserve, though he skated with the team Friday in New York, and Matt Tomkins is the listed backup.
Ilya Sorokin is the probable starter for the Islanders, listed ahead of Semyon Varlamov but not confirmed. Sorokin's .915 save percentage is the best mark of the four goalies in this matchup. Nine games is a small sample, but Sorokin is the reason New York can win a low-event game.
The Islanders won the one meeting we can confirm, 1-0 in Edmonton on Jan. 15.
Finishing against a thin blue line
Edmonton doesn't outshoot people. It outfinishes them. The Oilers' shooting percentage (goals per shot) is 16.2%, 1st in the league. McDavid has 36 points in 13 games, and Draisaitl has 12 goals. Zach Hyman remains on injured reserve with a stiff neck.
New York's defense is stretched. Alexander Romanov is out for the season after knee surgery. Ryan Pulock left Thursday's game with an upper-body injury. He is officially day-to-day, but the Islanders expect him to miss at least a game or two, starting Saturday. Matt Kessel is the likely replacement. Mathew Barzal (knee) also remains out.
That puts more on Matthew Schaefer, who already plays 27.0 minutes a night. He scored twice Thursday, including the overtime winner at Minnesota, and has eight points in six games.
What the market sees
Edmonton is a -132 road favorite, with the Islanders at +110. Neither the puck line nor the 6.5 total has moved since our feed first recorded the game. The Oilers are 5-0-0 on the road and 8-5 to the over this season.
The early minutes carry weight. Edmonton scores 1.31 first-period goals per game and allows just 0.54, which ranks 1st. The Islanders' five most recent games all closed at 5.5, so this is a higher total than New York usually sees.
Edmonton Oilers vs New York Islanders line movement and odds
| Book | Oilers ML | Islanders ML | Oilers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 | +1.5 (-275) | o6 (-115) |
| DraftKings | -110 | -110 | -1.5 (+220) | o6.5 (+114) |
| ESPN BET | -110 | -110 | +1.5 (-325) | o6.5 (+110) |
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 | -1.5 (+210) | o5.5 (-135) |
| FanDuel | -110 | -110 | +1.5 (-290) | o6.5 (+110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -115 | -115 | -1.5 (+210) | o6.5 (+105) |
| Caesars | -108 | -112 | — | o6 (-111) |
Key players
- Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers): He has 36 points, including 28 assists, in 13 games this season.
- Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton Oilers): He leads the Oilers with 12 goals on 48 shots this season.
- Evan Bouchard (Edmonton Oilers): He has 22 points while logging 26.2 minutes per game this season.
- Tristan Jarry (Edmonton Oilers): The confirmed starter carries a 2.95 goals-against average in six games this season.
- Matthew Schaefer (New York Islanders): He has 14 points and plays 27.0 minutes a night this season.
- Bo Horvat (New York Islanders): He leads New York with seven goals this season.
- Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders): The probable starter has a .915 save percentage and 2.34 goals-against average in nine games this season.
Numbers that matter
| Oilers power play | 35.7% | Best in the league and the biggest single edge in this matchup. |
|---|---|---|
| Islanders times shorthanded per game | 3.38 | Ranks 22nd, which hands Edmonton's power play extra chances. |
| Islanders penalty kill | 86.4% | Ranks 5th and is New York's main defense against Edmonton's top unit. |
| Oilers moneyline | -132 | Edmonton is a modest road favorite, with no line movement since our feed first saw the game. |
Edmonton Oilers vs New York Islanders: quick answers
What is the over/under for Edmonton Oilers vs New York Islanders?
The total is 6 goals.
When is Edmonton Oilers vs New York Islanders?
Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 2:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Edmonton Oilers vs New York Islanders?
No: Edmonton Oilers has stayed at -1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).