Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints prediction: Jaylen Warren's best path through Paris runs straight at the Saints

The run game Pittsburgh barely uses

The first NFL regular-season game in France hands the Steelers a problem they would love to have more often: an opponent that can't stop the run. New Orleans allows 138.0 rushing yards per game, 30th in the league, and ranks 31st in EPA per designed run allowed. (EPA, expected points added, measures how much each snap moves a team toward points.)

Pittsburgh's ground game is quietly one of the league's best. The Steelers rank 4th in EPA per designed run at 0.04, and Jaylen Warren has 460 yards on 84 carries. Yet they throw on 63.4% of early downs, 2nd-most in the NFL, while their EPA per dropback of -0.13 ranks 27th. The efficient play and the favorite play point in opposite directions.

Backup Rico Dowdle (knee) is questionable and was listed as limited on Friday's report, an estimate because the Steelers canceled that practice for weather. If he sits, the carries funnel even more toward Warren.

Rodgers under siege on third down

Aaron Rodgers arrives one touchdown pass from moving past Peyton Manning, whom he tied at 539 in last week's overtime rally against Tampa Bay. The drive to that milestone has been bumpy. He has taken 19 sacks, and Pittsburgh's sack rate allowed (sacks per dropback) of 7.5% ranks 24th.

The Steelers also convert just 32.9% of third downs, 28th in the league, and they will do it with a thinned receiver room. Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson are on injured reserve, and Ben Skowronek (calf) is out. That leaves DK Metcalf and rookie Germie Bernard, who caught the six-yard overtime winner against the Bucs, as the primary targets. Every long third down Pittsburgh avoids by running on first and second is one fewer chance for a sack.

Shough's hand and the red zone

Tyler Shough has been playing with broken bones in his left hand since the Oct. 5 loss to Atlanta; reports differ on whether it is two or three, and the Saints have not publicly confirmed the diagnosis. He practiced fully Wednesday through Friday and carries no game designation, and he threw three touchdowns without an interception in the 34-27 win over the Giants.

Chris Olave is the engine, with 580 receiving yards. Where New Orleans shines is the finish: the Saints score touchdowns on 84.2% of red-zone trips, 2nd in the NFL. Pittsburgh's defense, 5th in EPA per play allowed, holds opponents to touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips, 7th.

The Steelers' secondary is shuffled. Cornerback Brandin Echols (hamstring) is out, and safety DeShon Elliott (knee) was activated from injured reserve Saturday and is questionable. T.J. Watt was limited Thursday with a calf issue plus rest, and no Friday status had surfaced. On the Saints' side, guard Cesar Ruiz (knee) and defensive tackle Nathan Shepherd (illness) are questionable.

Travel, rest and the line

Both teams had a normal week of rest, but they spent it differently. New Orleans flew to Paris straight from New Jersey after the Giants game, while Pittsburgh practiced at home and left Thursday. The Saints head into their bye after this, so Shough's hand gets time to heal once Sunday is done.

The market has drifted toward New Orleans. Pittsburgh opened in our feed as a 3.5-point favorite and sits at 3, and the total has dipped from 44.5 to 43.5. That lower total fits the Steelers' defensive profile more than their over record, and a run-heavy Pittsburgh script would shorten the game further.