Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals prediction: Bo Nix gets a vulnerable Arizona secondary with his offense stalled

A stalled passer, a soft target

Denver is 4-2 with a defense that ranks 10th in points allowed and 3rd in takeaways. The offense has spent October answering questions about its quarterback, and Sean Payton said Oct. 19 that the Broncos are not considering benching Bo Nix. Sunday in Glendale gives Nix a clear chance to answer those questions himself.

The numbers explain why the question came up. Nix is averaging 5.6 yards per attempt, and Denver ranks 30th in passing yards per game. He has struggled to push the ball downfield, and the Broncos create explosive plays (runs of 10+ yards, passes of 20+) on just 5.9% of snaps, 29th in the league.

Arizona is a good place to fix that. Measured by EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap moved a team toward points), the Cardinals' pass defense allows 0.26 per dropback, 30th of 32. Their defense also gives up explosive plays on 10.6% of snaps. Wingard has been ruled out, Budda Baker (groin, illness) and cornerback Max Melton (knee) are questionable, and Wydett Williams is off the final report after a concussion.

Waddle, acquired by trade this season, was fully cleared after a chest injury limited him early in the week. He is the receiver most likely to produce the downfield plays Denver's passing game has lacked.

Arizona runs without Love

Jeremiyah Love has been ruled out with an ankle injury and is expected back for Week 8 against Dallas. That leaves the backfield to Bam Knight and Tyler Allgeier, and Knight is the preferred option after he ran for 80 yards on 15 carries in last week's win over the Rams.

The matchup favors him. Denver allows 139.8 rushing yards per game, 31st in the league, and outside linebacker Jonah Elliss is now on injured reserve. Arizona's line is patched, though: Hayden Conner starts at right guard for the injured Jon Gaines II.

The Broncos face the opposite problem on the ground. Arizona ranks 7th in EPA per designed run allowed, even with defensive tackle Walter Nolen III out. Denver activated rookie Jonah Coleman from injured reserve, and he is listed as questionable.

Where Denver's defense wins

The Broncos force 1.7 takeaways per game, 3rd in the league, and that is the clearest edge in this matchup. Jacoby Brissett has thrown 6 interceptions and taken 12 sacks, and Denver now gets edge rusher Jonathon Cooper back from the commissioner's exempt list.

Arizona's passing game runs through Trey McBride, who has 49 catches and has become an even bigger part of the offense since Marvin Harrison Jr. was traded to Houston. He draws a Denver secondary without safety Talanoa Hufanga, who is out with an ankle injury. Pat Surtain II (ankle) was limited in all three practices and is questionable, and Denver hasn't said whether he plays. Riley Moss practiced fully all week, which helps if Surtain sits.

Rest, tempo and a low total

Denver comes in with 10 days of rest after a Thursday overtime win over Seattle, against Arizona's 7. The Cardinals are coming off an upset at the Rams as a 12.5-point underdog, but they are still winless at home this season.

The two teams play at very different speeds. Arizona runs 66.5 plays per game, while Denver runs only 56.5. The total sits at 43.5 and hasn't moved, which fits a Broncos team whose games have finished under the total in 5 of 6. The spread has moved slightly toward Denver this week.