Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets prediction: Jets' pass rush hunts Malik Willis as Miami chases its first win

The pressure gap

The Dolphins are 0-5 and, through their first five games, had not held a lead at any point this season. They come out of a bye needing their quarterback to stay upright, and that is exactly where the Jets hold the edge.

Sack rate (sacks per dropback) tells the story. The Jets' defense takes down opposing quarterbacks on 7.7% of dropbacks, 6th in the league. Miami's line allows sacks on 8.8% of dropbacks, 27th, and Malik Willis has been dropped 14 times already. The Jets will be without edge rusher Joseph Ossai (ankle), who has been ruled out, but the rush has produced without needing one star.

The pressure compounds a ball-security problem. Willis threw two interceptions and lost a fumble against Cincinnati, his third straight game with a lost fumble. He was officially listed with a right thumb injury this week, practiced fully Wednesday through Friday and carries no game designation. Head coach Jeff Hafley has said he isn't considering a quarterback change.

The other side of the trenches flips the picture. New York's protection is just as shaky, allowing sacks on 9.3% of dropbacks (30th), and Geno Smith has taken 19 sacks. Tackle Max Mitchell (concussion) is out and guard Dylan Parham (knee) is questionable. But Miami's pass rush ranks dead last with a 2.5% sack rate, and edge Robert Beal Jr. (hamstring) is doubtful. A weak Jets line may get away with it this week.

Garrett Wilson against a thin secondary

Clean pockets should mean throws downfield, and Miami has struggled to stop them. The Dolphins allow 0.3 EPA per dropback (expected points added: how much each snap moves an offense toward points), 31st in the league.

Garrett Wilson is the obvious beneficiary, with 418 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns this season. Cornerback Reese Taylor (quadriceps) has been ruled out, leaving Miami leaning on young defensive backs again. JuJu Brents (heel) practiced fully all week without a designation, which helps.

Wilson also has more help now. Rookie Omar Cooper Jr., back from injured reserve, posted his first 100-yard game at New England, and Adonai Mitchell (finger) was a full participant Friday after missing recent games. Smith has thrown one interception all year, so Miami's path to stealing possessions is narrow.

Two offenses that stall near the goal line

The total sits at 39.5, and the red zone explains why. The Jets score touchdowns on 37.5% of trips inside the 20, last in the league. Miami converts 46.2%, 30th. Both teams can move the ball between the 20s in spurts and then settle for field goals.

Miami's offense is the bigger worry overall at 14.0 points per game (31st). Its best avenue is the ground game led by Ollie Gordon II, with De'Von Achane on injured reserve. The Jets' backfield is unsettled too: Breece Hall (quadriceps) sat Wednesday, was limited Thursday and Friday, and is questionable, which would leave Braelon Allen as the lead runner.

The forecast shows little interference at an outdoor MetLife Stadium: mild temperatures, light wind and no rain expected.

What the market is saying

The Jets opened this week at -5 in our feed and have drifted to -4, with money moving toward Miami. The Dolphins arrive on 14 days of rest off their bye, while the Jets are coming off a road loss in New England.

New York has been a reliable cover at 4-1-1 against the spread. Miami sits at 1-3-1. The history leans the other way: the Dolphins swept the Jets last season, including a 34-10 win at MetLife. That matters less than what each roster looks like now, and right now the Jets have the defense that can make the other quarterback's afternoon miserable.