Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions prediction: Goff's zero interceptions collide with Green Bay's league-best takeaway habit
Detroit scores at will and gives up nearly as much, so a Packers defense without Micah Parsons may need to take the ball away to keep pace at Ford Field.
| Spread | Detroit Lions -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 55.5 |
Detroit Lions win 62% of the simulated games, Green Bay Packers 37%. Median score: Green Bay Packers 25, Detroit Lions 28. Watch the most typical game, play by play.
- Expect points. Detroit scores 32.8 per game and allows 29.6, and Green Bay throws well enough to punish that defense.
- Green Bay's takeaways (1.8 per game, 1st in the NFL) against Jared Goff, who has 12 touchdowns and no interceptions.
- Detroit moved from -3 to -3.5 and the total rose to 55.5. The Lions are 5-0 to the over this season.
Something has to break
Detroit has not given the ball away this season. Jared Goff has 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions, and the Lions turn it over 0.2 times per game, the fewest in the league. Green Bay lives on the opposite habit. The Packers force 1.8 takeaways per game, which ranks 1st, and they picked off Dak Prescott twice while building a 17-0 halftime lead in last week's 23-13 win over Dallas.
This defense has more going for it than turnovers. Green Bay ranks 7th in EPA per play allowed (expected points added: how much each snap moved an offense toward points). It also allows explosive plays, meaning runs of 10-plus yards and passes of 20-plus, on just 5.6% of snaps, 3rd-best in the league. The trouble starts near the goal line. Opponents score touchdowns on 75.0% of red-zone trips, which ranks 27th. Detroit finishes 77.3% of its red-zone drives, 3rd in the league.
Green Bay plays without Micah Parsons, who is out as he works back from ACL surgery. Linebacker Zaire Franklin (shin) is also out. If the Packers can't take the ball away, they will have to hold up in the red zone, which has been their weak spot.
Love gets a soft target
Detroit's defense is the reason this total sits where it does. The Lions allow 321.4 passing yards per game, last in the league, and rank 29th in EPA per dropback allowed. Jordan Love throws for 280.7 yards per game, 5th in the NFL. His two outside receivers are both productive, led by Christian Watson at 89.7 yards a game with 538 yards and six touchdowns, and Matthew Golden at 83.5.
Help arrives for the Lions' secondary. Brian Branch, back from a torn Achilles, was activated Saturday and carries no injury designation, and Dan Campbell said he will see significant snaps. Kerby Joseph (knee) remains out and is first eligible to return in Week 8.
Detroit's best counter may be its pass rush. The Lions get sacks on 8.3% of opponent dropbacks, 4th in the league, and Love has gone down 13 times.
Jacobs returns to a stalled run game
Green Bay cannot run the ball right now. The Packers rank last in rushing yards (59.8 per game) and last in EPA per designed run, and MarShawn Lloyd is averaging 2.5 yards per carry. Josh Jacobs was activated from the Commissioner's Exempt List on Saturday and is expected to play. He may not start, but he is expected to take a significant share of snaps. Detroit ranks 27th in EPA allowed per designed run, so the opening is there.
At the other end, Jahmyr Gibbs has 504 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. He gets a Packers run defense that ranks 28th in EPA allowed per designed run and is thin inside. Javon Hargrave is lost for the season with a torn Achilles and Jonathan Ford is on injured reserve. Jordon Riley was activated from the PUP list Saturday and is questionable. Detroit also gets center Cade Mays back from a wrist fracture, and he is expected to replace Juice Scruggs in the lineup.
Rest, rivalry and the number
The Lions come off a bye with 14 days of rest. Green Bay is on normal rest after playing Sunday night. This is the first NFC North meeting of the season. The Packers won the last two, including a 31-24 Thanksgiving win at Ford Field last season.
The market leans toward Detroit's offense. The spread moved from Lions -3 to -3.5 and the total climbed from 53.5 to 55.5. Those two records pull in opposite directions. Every Lions game has gone over, and Green Bay is 2-4 to the over. Detroit has covered only once in five games.
Key players
- Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers): Love has 11 touchdown passes this season, but he has been sacked 13 times heading into a game against a top-five pass rush.
- Christian Watson (Green Bay Packers): Watson leads the Packers with 538 receiving yards and six touchdowns this season.
- Matthew Golden (Green Bay Packers): Golden leads the team with 57 targets and averages 83.5 receiving yards per game this season.
- Jared Goff (Detroit Lions): Goff has thrown 12 touchdowns without an interception this season.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions): Gibbs averages 100.8 rushing yards per game with seven rushing touchdowns this season.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions): St. Brown leads Detroit with 57 targets and has five touchdown catches this season.
Numbers that matter
| Packers takeaways per game | 1.8 | That ranks 1st in the NFL, against a Lions offense that ranks 1st in ball security. |
|---|---|---|
| Lions passing yards allowed per game | 321.4 | That ranks last of 32, against a Packers passing game that ranks 5th in yards. |
| Packers EPA per designed run | -0.27 | That ranks last in the league, which is the hole Josh Jacobs returns to fill. |
| Opponent red-zone TD % vs. Packers | 75.0% | That ranks 27th, and it faces a Detroit offense that scores touchdowns on 77.3% of red-zone trips. |
| Total now | 55.5 | The total is up from 53.5, and every Lions game this season has gone over. |
Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions: quick answers
Who is favored in Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions?
Detroit Lions is favored by 3.5 points (Detroit Lions -3.5).
What is the over/under for Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions?
The total is 55.5 points.
When is Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions?
Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET.