Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks prediction: Kenneth Walker III returns to Seattle with the NFL's top ground game

Walker's homecoming

Seattle let Kenneth Walker III leave in free agency in March. He comes back to Lumen Field on Sunday night as a Super Bowl LX MVP and the engine of a 5-0 team. Walker has 665 rushing yards through five games, and he ran for 128 yards and two touchdowns in last week's win over the Chargers.

Kansas City leads the league in EPA per designed run (expected points added: how much each snap moved a team toward points) at 0.12. It also ranks 1st in rushing yards per game. Seattle brings the counterpunch: the 2nd-ranked run defense by that same measure, at -0.19 per designed run.

The Seahawks will defend Walker without two linebackers. Drake Thomas (ankle) and Chazz Surratt (calf) are both out, with Tyrice Knight in line to replace Thomas, and safety Nick Emmanwori (hip) is questionable.

The contrast with Seattle's own backfield is the sting. The Seahawks rank 30th in EPA per designed run, and Zach Charbonnet was ruled out despite a full week of practice. Emanuel Wilson, averaging 3.5 yards per carry, and George Holani are set to keep splitting the work.

Two new tackles for Mahomes

Kansas City will protect Patrick Mahomes without either starting tackle. Left tackle Josh Simmons went on injured reserve after the team said his back rehab plateaued, and right tackle Jaylon Moore was ruled out with a concussion. Joshua Ezeudu is expected to make his first Chiefs start at right tackle. The team hasn't said how it will fill the left side.

That line had been among the league's best at keeping Mahomes clean, ranking 3rd in sack rate allowed (sacks per dropback). Seattle's rush gets home on 7.5% of opponent dropbacks, 7th in the league. Two of its edge players, DeMarcus Lawrence (knee) and Uchenna Nwosu (hip), are questionable. Mahomes himself practiced fully all week and carries no game status.

The pressure is unlikely to flow the other way. Kansas City's defense ranks 28th in sack rate, a soft spot for a unit that is otherwise elite. Sam Darnold has still been sacked 14 times, so Seattle's protection gets no free pass.

Darnold's turnover problem

Darnold has thrown 7 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, including two more picks in the overtime loss at Denver on Oct. 15. Mike Macdonald said afterward he wasn't considering a switch to Drew Lock, who is questionable anyway with a right elbow injury.

This is the matchup Kansas City wants. Seattle gives the ball away 2.0 times per game, 30th in the league. The Chiefs rank 5th in takeaways and 1st in turnover margin.

Darnold's escape hatch is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has 717 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. Kansas City's secondary may be thinner than usual: cornerback L'Jarius Sneed is questionable with a knee injury and did not fly to Seattle with the team for personal reasons.

One quirk runs in Kansas City's favor. Seattle allows 4.0 yards per play, best in the league, but opponents who reach its 20 score touchdowns 78.6% of the time, 30th. If the Chiefs can grind into the red zone, the numbers say they finish.

Why the unbeaten team gets points

Kansas City is the AFC's lone unbeaten team and still a 3-point underdog. Seattle -3 and a total of 42.5 have held since the line first appeared on Oct. 20, with the Seahawks at -150 on the moneyline.

The market is paying for home field, rest and Seattle's defense. The Seahawks come in on 10 days of rest after their Thursday game in Denver. They have also been favored in every game listed this season and covered just once, going 1-3-2 against the spread.

Kansas City's games have mostly stayed low, going under in three of five. The forecast adds to that case: a 40% chance of rain with gusts to 27 mph at an outdoor stadium. Seattle's offense converts 32.4% of third downs, 29th in the league, so long fields in bad weather favor the team that runs better.